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Gemini Breaks Into Prediction Markets After 5-Year Wait, Challenging Kalshi and Polymarket

Thursday, 11/12/2025 | 10:00 GMT by Tanya Chepkova
  • Gemini’s new CFTC license puts it head-to-head with Kalshi and Polymarket, accelerating competition in the U.S. prediction market sector.
  • The license marks Gemini’s first step toward a broader derivatives push, with plans extending well beyond simple event contracts.
Gemini

After five years seeking a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) license, Gemini can now compete directly with established rivals Kalshi and Polymarket.

Gemini first applied for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license in March 2020, though the regulator approved it only in December 2025. Gemini’s leadership framed the approval as a benefit of a more supportive political environment.

“We thank President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto,” CEO Tyler Winklevoss said in a pointed statement. “It’s incredibly refreshing to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro-crypto, pro-innovation, and pro-America.”

Gemini’s stock (NASDAQ: GEMI), publicly listed since September 2025, rose 13.7% after-hours as investors weighed the impact of a well-capitalized exchange entering a key crypto sector.

Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) stock price. Source: TradingView
Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) stock price. Source: TradingView

The CFTC has not commented on any political factors surrounding the approval.

What Is Known About Gemini’s Prediction Markets

The new license allows Gemini Titan – a wholly owned subsidiary of Gemini Space Station – to offer prediction markets to U.S. customers. Initially, the company plans to launch simple yes-or-no event contracts, directly competing with Kalshi's and Polymarket's flagship products.

The new trading contracts will be available “soon” on Gemini’s web interface, with mobile trading to follow. U.S. customers of the cryptocurrency exchange will be able to trade them from their USD accounts. Gemini signaled that prediction markets are just the first step in a broader derivatives strategy.

The firm outlined plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts. “Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s president.

What It Means for the U.S. Prediction Markets

PlatformSource of RevenueTarget Audience
Gemini TitanContract spreads + institutional partnershipsInstitutions + crypto-native users
KalshiContract fees + settlement fees + partnerships (e.g., Robinhood)Traditional traders; sports and politics traders
PolymarketLiquidity incentives + token economics (POLY)Global crypto users

Gemini’s approval immediately shifts the U.S. prediction market landscape from a stable two-player scene—Kalshi as the sole fully CFTC-regulated venue and Polymarket with strong on-chain growth—to a three-way contest.

With a public-market footprint, strong capital base, and mainstream distribution, Gemini enters as a competitor poised to challenge both competitors. Its arrival is expected to intensify the race for liquidity, product depth, and user acquisition, prompting more aggressive platform differentiation.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour previously described the rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket as the kind of “ferocious” duel that forces a young market to mature.

Gemini’s entry turns a duopoly into a competitive triangle, spurring faster innovation and sharper rivalry in prediction markets.

After five years seeking a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) license, Gemini can now compete directly with established rivals Kalshi and Polymarket.

Gemini first applied for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license in March 2020, though the regulator approved it only in December 2025. Gemini’s leadership framed the approval as a benefit of a more supportive political environment.

“We thank President Trump for ending the Biden Administration’s War on Crypto,” CEO Tyler Winklevoss said in a pointed statement. “It’s incredibly refreshing to have a President and a financial regulator who are pro-crypto, pro-innovation, and pro-America.”

Gemini’s stock (NASDAQ: GEMI), publicly listed since September 2025, rose 13.7% after-hours as investors weighed the impact of a well-capitalized exchange entering a key crypto sector.

Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) stock price. Source: TradingView
Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) stock price. Source: TradingView

The CFTC has not commented on any political factors surrounding the approval.

What Is Known About Gemini’s Prediction Markets

The new license allows Gemini Titan – a wholly owned subsidiary of Gemini Space Station – to offer prediction markets to U.S. customers. Initially, the company plans to launch simple yes-or-no event contracts, directly competing with Kalshi's and Polymarket's flagship products.

The new trading contracts will be available “soon” on Gemini’s web interface, with mobile trading to follow. U.S. customers of the cryptocurrency exchange will be able to trade them from their USD accounts. Gemini signaled that prediction markets are just the first step in a broader derivatives strategy.

The firm outlined plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts. “Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s president.

What It Means for the U.S. Prediction Markets

PlatformSource of RevenueTarget Audience
Gemini TitanContract spreads + institutional partnershipsInstitutions + crypto-native users
KalshiContract fees + settlement fees + partnerships (e.g., Robinhood)Traditional traders; sports and politics traders
PolymarketLiquidity incentives + token economics (POLY)Global crypto users

Gemini’s approval immediately shifts the U.S. prediction market landscape from a stable two-player scene—Kalshi as the sole fully CFTC-regulated venue and Polymarket with strong on-chain growth—to a three-way contest.

With a public-market footprint, strong capital base, and mainstream distribution, Gemini enters as a competitor poised to challenge both competitors. Its arrival is expected to intensify the race for liquidity, product depth, and user acquisition, prompting more aggressive platform differentiation.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour previously described the rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket as the kind of “ferocious” duel that forces a young market to mature.

Gemini’s entry turns a duopoly into a competitive triangle, spurring faster innovation and sharper rivalry in prediction markets.

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About the Author: Tanya Chepkova
Tanya Chepkova
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About the Author: Tanya Chepkova
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    When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers. This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025. Key Themes: - Building trader communities through education and local expertise - Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies - Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition - What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading Speakers: -Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive -Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets -Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill -Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy #fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets Connect with us at: 🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events 👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents 📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official 🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events 🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official

    When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers. This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025. Key Themes: - Building trader communities through education and local expertise - Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies - Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition - What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading Speakers: -Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive -Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets -Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill -Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy #fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets Connect with us at: 🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events 👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents 📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official 🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events 🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official

    When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers. This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025. Key Themes: - Building trader communities through education and local expertise - Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies - Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition - What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading Speakers: -Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive -Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets -Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill -Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy #fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets Connect with us at: 🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events 👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents 📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official 🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events 🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official

    When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers. This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025. Key Themes: - Building trader communities through education and local expertise - Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies - Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition - What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading Speakers: -Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive -Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets -Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill -Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy #fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets Connect with us at: 🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events 👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents 📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official 🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events 🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official

    When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers. This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025. Key Themes: - Building trader communities through education and local expertise - Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies - Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition - What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading Speakers: -Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive -Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets -Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill -Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy #fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets Connect with us at: 🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events 👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents 📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official 🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events 🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
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