As Finance Magnates reported, the total number of people to test positive for COVID-19 has now surpassed 10 million, according to Johns Hopkins University. This has been largely led by an uptick in cases across the United States, Brazil, and Russia.
But not only that, countries that looked to be doing particularly well or had flattened the curve, such as Australia, Israel, and China, have all started to record a rise in cases in recent weeks.
So what does this all mean for oil? In April, the price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) May futures contracts went into the negative territory for the first time in history, as lockdown measures significantly reduced the demand for oil.
However, since this event, prices have not gone negative again. In fact, hope that restrictions will continue to ease even provided a boost for prices. However, if cases of COVID-19 continue to rise around the world, or if there is a so-called second wave, could we see negative oil prices again?
Oil prices are holding up well
According to Keir Gould, the Head of Trading at Vantage FX, oil prices have held relatively well despite the uptick in COVID-19 cases, with only a slight pullback after news came out that cases were increasing in the United States.
"A re-implementation of restrictions would likely see another demand shock and lead to a re-acceleration in the global supply glut, this would most likely see the price retrace and most analysts to re-evaluate their end of year forecasts downward, although it is hard to see the previous lows being re-tested," Gould told Finance Magnates.
According to Charalambos Pissouros, Senior Market Analyst at JFD Group, there is currently a battle between market participants - those who are placing bets that economic recovery will be faster than previously thought, and those who are worried about a second wave of COVID-19.
"I don't believe that the surging cases by themselves could result in another plunge in equity and oil markets," Pissouros outlined. "What could do so is the re-introduction of lockdown measures around the globe, which could result in another hit to the global economy.
"For now, I am neutral on oil. On the one hand, as long as most nations around the globe continue to ease their restrictions, economies are on the road to recovery, which could slowly revive demand for energy products. On the other hand, a second round of 'stay at home' measures could diminish demand, allow supply to surge, and thereby storage space to shrink, which could result in lower oil prices again."
Will negative prices return for oil?
Although oil prices are holding up well for now, does that mean we will see negative oil prices again? According to Gould, the unprecedented price movements which happened in April are unlikely to happen again.
"It's unlikely we will see negative oil prices again; the original occurrence happened as a result of the incorrect assumption that the WTI contract wouldn't be allowed to trade below negative on the exchange, when this was disproved opportunistic short-sellers forced a squeeze on the institutional traders that needed to roll their futures contracts on the last day of trading, forcing the price into negative territory.
"Having been burnt once most institutions and brokers have changed their internal processes to prevent being caught out on the roll in the future, opting to roll a week or two in advance or simply hedging and trading in longer-dated contracts. Combine this with the fact that China's largest state-owned oil refiners are in the process of forming a purchasing group, which should increase global demand, and it's hard to see negative prices re-occurring."
Pissouros, on the other hand, said he's not willing to rule out negative oil prices: "As I already noted, in order to see oil prices decently lower, a new round of lockdown measures must be adopted worldwide, in my humble opinion. Now, whether we could see negative oil prices again, or not, may depend on how long any new restrictions will last. Back in April, the reasoning behind the dip into negative waters was that holders of May future contracts were willing to pay money in order to avoid taking delivery and paying extra storage costs. Thus, conditional upon another two or three months of lockdown measures, I cannot rule out this happening again."
As Finance Magnates reported, earlier this month, FXCM launched two new CFD products – UKOilSpot and USOilSpot. The two new spot oil products will represent the current spot price of West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude.
eToro also launched an oil portfolio, called OilWorldWide, which gives retail investors exposure to 20 global companies across the oil sector, and IS Prime created a solution that aims to combat the risks of the spot oil price potentially going negative again.
"Trading volumes have increased significantly across the forward curve with many institutions simply maintaining their hedge further out the curve to avoid contract roll risk," explained Gould.
As Finance Magnates reported, the total number of people to test positive for COVID-19 has now surpassed 10 million, according to Johns Hopkins University. This has been largely led by an uptick in cases across the United States, Brazil, and Russia.
But not only that, countries that looked to be doing particularly well or had flattened the curve, such as Australia, Israel, and China, have all started to record a rise in cases in recent weeks.
So what does this all mean for oil? In April, the price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) May futures contracts went into the negative territory for the first time in history, as lockdown measures significantly reduced the demand for oil.
However, since this event, prices have not gone negative again. In fact, hope that restrictions will continue to ease even provided a boost for prices. However, if cases of COVID-19 continue to rise around the world, or if there is a so-called second wave, could we see negative oil prices again?
Oil prices are holding up well
According to Keir Gould, the Head of Trading at Vantage FX, oil prices have held relatively well despite the uptick in COVID-19 cases, with only a slight pullback after news came out that cases were increasing in the United States.
"A re-implementation of restrictions would likely see another demand shock and lead to a re-acceleration in the global supply glut, this would most likely see the price retrace and most analysts to re-evaluate their end of year forecasts downward, although it is hard to see the previous lows being re-tested," Gould told Finance Magnates.
According to Charalambos Pissouros, Senior Market Analyst at JFD Group, there is currently a battle between market participants - those who are placing bets that economic recovery will be faster than previously thought, and those who are worried about a second wave of COVID-19.
"I don't believe that the surging cases by themselves could result in another plunge in equity and oil markets," Pissouros outlined. "What could do so is the re-introduction of lockdown measures around the globe, which could result in another hit to the global economy.
"For now, I am neutral on oil. On the one hand, as long as most nations around the globe continue to ease their restrictions, economies are on the road to recovery, which could slowly revive demand for energy products. On the other hand, a second round of 'stay at home' measures could diminish demand, allow supply to surge, and thereby storage space to shrink, which could result in lower oil prices again."
Will negative prices return for oil?
Although oil prices are holding up well for now, does that mean we will see negative oil prices again? According to Gould, the unprecedented price movements which happened in April are unlikely to happen again.
"It's unlikely we will see negative oil prices again; the original occurrence happened as a result of the incorrect assumption that the WTI contract wouldn't be allowed to trade below negative on the exchange, when this was disproved opportunistic short-sellers forced a squeeze on the institutional traders that needed to roll their futures contracts on the last day of trading, forcing the price into negative territory.
"Having been burnt once most institutions and brokers have changed their internal processes to prevent being caught out on the roll in the future, opting to roll a week or two in advance or simply hedging and trading in longer-dated contracts. Combine this with the fact that China's largest state-owned oil refiners are in the process of forming a purchasing group, which should increase global demand, and it's hard to see negative prices re-occurring."
Pissouros, on the other hand, said he's not willing to rule out negative oil prices: "As I already noted, in order to see oil prices decently lower, a new round of lockdown measures must be adopted worldwide, in my humble opinion. Now, whether we could see negative oil prices again, or not, may depend on how long any new restrictions will last. Back in April, the reasoning behind the dip into negative waters was that holders of May future contracts were willing to pay money in order to avoid taking delivery and paying extra storage costs. Thus, conditional upon another two or three months of lockdown measures, I cannot rule out this happening again."
As Finance Magnates reported, earlier this month, FXCM launched two new CFD products – UKOilSpot and USOilSpot. The two new spot oil products will represent the current spot price of West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude.
eToro also launched an oil portfolio, called OilWorldWide, which gives retail investors exposure to 20 global companies across the oil sector, and IS Prime created a solution that aims to combat the risks of the spot oil price potentially going negative again.
"Trading volumes have increased significantly across the forward curve with many institutions simply maintaining their hedge further out the curve to avoid contract roll risk," explained Gould.
Interactive Brokers Expands Offerings with Daily Options on French Stocks
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Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
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20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
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▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔