Silver is trading at $81.50 on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, down just 2% after a stunning two-day recovery that saw the white metal gain 10% Friday and 7% Monday. Despite the minor pullback, silver remains up 15% year-to-date after surviving extreme volatility that included a 26% single-day crash on January 30 and a 20% drop last week.
Bank of America's head of metals research Michael Widmer maintains his extraordinary $309 silver price prediction for 2026, representing a potential 279% gain from current levels, based on historical gold-to-silver ratio compression.
In this article, I am answering the question of why silver is going up today, analyzing the XAG/USD chart and checking the newest silver price forecasts.
Follow me on X for more silver market analysis: @ChmielDk
Silver's Crypto-Like Volatility: From $122 to $75 to $82
Silver's recent price action has exhibited volatility "closer to that of crypto altcoins than precious metals markets," as extreme swings have whipsawed traders in both directions.
The timeline of chaos:
- January 29: Silver hit an all-time high of $121.88 per ounce
- January 30: Crashed 26% in a single session following Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination
- Last week: Another 20% single-day drop tested trader nerves
- February 6: Bottomed at $75 per ounce (Indian markets: ₹2.75 lakh/kg)
- Friday, Feb 7: Explosive 10% recovery rally
- Monday, Feb 9: Additional 7% gain, adding ₹15,000/kg in India
- Tuesday, Feb 10: Minor 2% profit-taking to $81.30-$81.60 range
Despite the roller coaster, silver has staged a remarkable two-day rally.
"The rapid stabilization around $75-$82 indicates that silver has completed its backtest from speculative frenzy to its industrial value bottom," notes Jiayi Li, a global market researcher. Trade sentiment has shifted from panic to "neutral-to-bullish," with traders looking to "buy the dip around $77-$78, aiming for a move back to $93 if the US Dollar weakens".
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From my technical analysis perspective, silver has successfully returned above the 50-day exponential moving average and the $81 resistance zone marked by year-end 2025 highs. This creates a "huge open path" toward testing resistance at $94 per ounce (mid-January peaks), then the psychological $100 level, and ultimately the $117-120 all-time high zone.
Bank of America's Explosive $309 Silver Price Forecast
Bank of America's Michael Widmer has issued one of the most extraordinary precious metals forecasts in history, projecting silver could reach between $135 and $309 per ounce in 2026 based on historical gold-to-silver ratio compression.
"Bank of America has laid out a breathtaking metals forecast for 2026. Their headline call isn't just bullish, it's historic," according to analysis of Widmer's projection. The forecast represents potential gains of 65% to 279% from current levels around $81.50.
The rationale hinges on the gold-to-silver ratio reverting to historical extremes. Using the 2011 ratio low of 32:1 yields a target of approximately $135, while applying the 1980 extreme of 14:1 (during the Hunt Brothers silver squeeze) produces the $309 scenario. With gold currently trading near $5,000, these ratio compressions would require silver to dramatically outperform the yellow metal.
However, Widmer himself acknowledges uncertainty, noting that "the price could cap at $309" rather than guaranteeing such levels. His nuanced assessment suggests "silver could still outperform gold this year" even if the extreme target isn't reached.
It's "quite ironic that it was Donald Trump's acerbic and loud 'America First' economic policies, coupled with tariffs to and fro, that triggered the rally in the precious metals in the first place," notes Pathikrit Bose in his analysis. "Now, that has come full circle, with Trump's appointment of Warsh as Fed Chair marking the demise of the same rally."
Yet even after the violent correction, the March 2026 silver futures contract (SIH26) remains up more than 25% year-to-date, demonstrating the underlying strength of the bull market.
SLV ETF's Extraordinary $33 Billion Surge
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest silver ETF with $46.2 billion in assets under management and daily volume of 175.5 million shares, tells the story of retail and institutional enthusiasm.
Performance has been nothing short of spectacular:
- YTD 2026: +26%
- Past year: +180%
- AUM growth: $13.4 billion (start of 2025) → $38 billion (year-end) → $46.2 billion (current)
- Monthly inflows 2025: Average of $2.02 billion per month
- vs S&P 500: Outperformed by wide margin in 2025
The Put/Call Premium ratio for March futures stands at 0.92, revealing that while "more money is still in calls," the fact that the ratio is so close to 1.0 shows "the cost of protection is rising rapidly". Bears are now "paying nearly as much for puts as bulls are for calls," suggesting heightened caution despite the bullish positioning.
This represents a dramatic shift from the euphoria that pushed silver to $122 in January. The market has transitioned from pure speculation to a more balanced risk assessment while maintaining constructive long-term positioning.
Why Silver Is Going Up?
Supply Deficit Crisis
- Fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficit, with cumulative shortfall reaching 820 million ounces
- Fresnillo cut 2026 production targets to 42-46.5 million ounces (from 45-51 million), despite silver prices doubling
- 7-15 year lead time required to open new mines prevents rapid production increases
- Production stagnating or declining, providing a significant price floor despite Fed hawkishness
- Physical market remains tight as miners cannot accelerate output to meet demand
Industrial Demand Drivers
- Electric vehicles require nearly twice as much silver as conventional cars
- Solar energy expansion accelerating due to AI infrastructure buildout and renewable mandates
- Consumer electronics (smartphones, IoT devices) increase per-unit silver content as complexity grows
- Defense applications supported by geopolitical tensions and military modernization
- Silver's status as best electrical conductor (surpassing copper and gold) makes it irreplaceable in high-growth sectors
- Industrial consumption provides price-insensitive baseline support, unlike volatile investment demand
How High Can Silver Go? $94 Next, Then $100, $140, $180
From my technical analysis perspective, silver's recovery above key levels opens a clear path to substantially higher prices.
Current
Position: $81.50
Silver has successfully reclaimed the 50-day EMA and the $81
resistance zone defined by year-end 2025 highs. This represents a
critical psychological and technical victory after spending days below this
threshold.
Immediate Resistance Path:
- $94: Mid-January peaks—breaking this level confirms the correction is complete and opens a "huge path" higher
- $100: Psychological round number that will attract significant media attention
- $117-120: 2026 all-time high zone tested in late January
If ATH
Breaks - Fibonacci Extensions Activate:
If we use Fibonacci extensions based on the current trend, my analysis shows:
- $140: 100% Fibonacci extension (71% upside from $82)
- $180: 161.8% Fibonacci extension (120% upside from $82)
This means silver could rally over 100% from current levels,though this remains "modest compared to Bank of America's $309 forecast which implies 279% gains.
Critical Support Levels:
- $70: Stopped the late 2025 correction and recent January/February crashes—very important support
- $55: October 2025 highs coinciding with the 200-day EMA—this is the bear market invalidation level
Geopolitical Tensions Provide Safe-Haven Cushion
Maksymilian Bączkowski, a trader and analyst, observes that "the market doesn't lack geopolitical tensions acting as an additional safety cushion for precious metals."
He notes that US-Iran talks, increased military presence in the region, and the absence of clear de-escalation signals mean "capital cautiously but consistently seeks shelter." This safe-haven demand provides a floor beneath precious metals prices even as the Federal Reserve maintains hawkish rhetoric.
On silver specifically, Bączkowski emphasizes it "remains extremely volatile after historical highs and attracts speculative capital." This dual nature, both safe haven and speculative vehicle, explains silver's tendency to exhibit price swings that dwarf those of gold.
He adds that "platinum and palladium move more calmly, remaining in gold's shadow," while "gold is dealing the cards today" with $5,000 serving as "a new reference zone from which the next wave of volatility may begin."
FAQ, Silver Price Analysis
Why is silver surging today?
Silver recovered to $81.50 on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, after gaining 10% Friday and 7% Monday following a brutal correction that saw the metal crash from $121.88 (Jan 29 ATH) to $75 (Feb 6 low).
How high can silver go in 2026?
Bank of America's Michael Widmer projects silver could reach between $135 and $309 per ounce based on historical gold-to-silver ratio compression, with the extreme $309 target representing 279% upside from current $81.50. The forecast uses the 2011 ratio low (32:1) for the $135 target and the 1980 Hunt Brothers extreme (14:1) for $309.
What is silver price prediction?
Bank of America head of metals research Michael Widmer forecasts silver could reach $135 to $309 per ounce in 2026, though he notes "the price could cap at $309" rather than guaranteeing such levels.
Should I buy silver now?
Yes, you should consider. Silver at $81.50 sits 33% below its January 29 ATH of $121.88 but remains up 15% YTD and 148% year-over-year despite extreme volatility. Technical support exists at $70 (held multiple tests) and $55 (Oct highs + 200 EMA), while resistance sits at $94, $100, then $117-120 (ATH zone).
