Polymarket traders have raised the probability of former FTX Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon this year to 12%. The shift follows the recent decision to pardon Binance Chief Executive Changpeng Zhao.

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Trump defended Zhao’s pardon, saying he had been informed that the Binance founder’s conduct “was not even a crime” and that he had been “persecuted by the Biden administration.”

Polymarket Bets Double on Bankman-Fried Pardon

Data from Polymarket shows that odds in the market titled “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” climbed from 5.6% to 12% within half a day. The total amount wagered in that market has surpassed $6.5 million, with roughly $302,000 staked on Bankman-Fried, Cointelegraph reported.

In a separate Polymarket contract on whether Bankman-Fried will be “Released from custody in 2025,” expectations briefly rose from 4.3% to 19.1% before stabilizing around 15.5%.

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Bankman-Fried is serving a 25-year sentence for fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering . His appeal remains pending, but legal experts say no major ruling is expected this year. As a result, a presidential pardon is seen as his only potential avenue for early release before January.

Comparisons Emerge Between Zhao and Bankman-Fried

Zhao’s pardon has prompted debate over whether Bankman-Fried should receive similar leniency. Observers have compared their cases, noting that Zhao’s offenses involved breaches of U.S. Anti-Money Laundering laws, while Bankman-Fried was convicted of misappropriating billions in customer funds.

Zhao received a four-month sentence, whereas Bankman-Fried was handed a 25-year term in 2024.

Crypto attorney Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if the Trump administration granted clemency to Bankman-Fried, citing his role as a “Democratic mega-donor” before FTX collapsed in late 2022.