The US economy underwent something of a rollercoaster ride in 2023. Depending on how you read the tea leaves, the sky was either falling or things were looking up. The overall question seems to be "Is everyone alright?"

2023 - A Dizzying Economic Odyssey

In the study of economic data, 2023 stands out. It was a swirl of numbers, a roller coaster of emotions, and depending on how you read the data, either the apocalypse or a party. How'd the economy fare in this dizzying year? This is where the shrug emoticon would come into play.

The End of Year Numbers

Sure, there's some good news in this tale of the economy in 2023. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) spoke of confidence, assuring us that the US economy is steering clear of a recession. The Federal Reserve, the economic maestro, kept interest rates in check as inflation did its normalization dance. Employers joined the party, adding 199k jobs in November, and the unemployment rate sits at a mere 3.7%. Champagne for everyone, right? And if you’re reaching for a glass, check out the best champagne to see in the New Year.

Storm Clouds on the Horizon?

Hold your horses. The flip side is always lurking in the shadows. The CBO foresees unemployment shuffling its way to 4.7% by the next year's end. The New York Fed president threw shade at the idea of lowering rates, deeming it "premature." And across almost every sector, Corporate execs are predicting a significant chance of more layoffs, with many considering hiring freezes. It’s a headscratcher.

The Michigan Index Shakes It All Up

Enter the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. It starts as a shy 64.9 in January, hits a low note at 59.0 in May, takes flight to 71.5 in July, crashes down to 61.3 in November, only to pirouette back up to 69.4 in December. If this really were a rollercoaster, you’d probably be turning green right about now.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has now been below 75 for 29 consecutive months, surpassing Feb 2008 - May 2010 as the longest period of extreme negative sentiment on record. pic.twitter.com/y20NTXXBXH

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 23, 2023

But hey, your year can’t possibly have been as bad as SBF’s, right?