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Yuan's New Stability Spurs Biggest Dim Sum Rally in Five Months
Yuan's New Stability Spurs Biggest Dim Sum Rally in Five Months
by
Bloomberg News
The Dim Sum bond market is starting to show a pulse after expectations for swings in China’s currency dropped...
The Dim Sum bond market is starting to show a pulse after expectations for swings in China’s currency dropped the most among major currencies this month.
“I do expect that the worst part of the currency uncertainty is behind us, but I’m also realistic that there is still concern about potential depreciation, which might keep yields from going down too much in the offshore market,” said Rajeev De Mello, who oversees about $10 billion as head of Asian fixed income at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in Singapore. “The higher yields, compared with the U.S. and many other countries, are going to be an attraction.”
While the average yield on offshore yuan bonds climbed to a record 6.18 percent on Jan. 28 -- compared with 1.03 percent on three-year Treasuries -- investors were reluctant to pile into the debt amid turmoil in the yuan and local stocks. Sentiment is slowly turning, with the yuan erasing its losses for the year and officials trying to soothe frayed nerves.
PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang said in a press conference on March 12 that the yuan’s internationalization and the development of the offshore market are driven by market forces. Policy makers have gone to extreme lengths to prop up the yuan -- ramping up intervention, clamping down on capital outflows and waging a rare verbal campaign to restore confidence in the currency.
Global sovereign issuers are lending a hand. China’s Ministry of Finance is said to have chosen London to issue the first yuan-denominated bonds outside of Hong Kong and the mainland, following the PBOC’s sale of 5 billion yuan of one-year bills in October. The Hungarian government is primarily looking at selling yuan bonds outside China.
Yuan Rally
The yuan traded in Hong Kong has risen 1.5 percent so far this year, while the onshore rate has advanced 0.2 percent. Both fell to five-year lows in January as the PBOC sought to punish speculators trying to take advantage of the difference in the two rates. Yuan deposits in Hong Kong, the biggest offshore pool, shrank 15 percent last year in their first annual drop, before rising 0.1 percent in January to 852 billion yuan, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Spillover Effect
“Given the shrinking pool following the depreciation, it was impossible for the Dim Sum market to not feel the spillover effects,” said Yang Xi, a Beijing-based analyst at Citic Securities Co., China’s biggest broker. “Now that the currency is stabilizing, we still think there are plenty of opportunities as the yuan’s globalization push is still on the top leadership’s agenda.”
Twelve-month forwards for the offshore yuan have rallied 2 percent so far this month in Hong Kong, outperforming the exchange rate’s 1.2 percent gain, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The one-year cross-currency swap rate, a leading indicator for offshore yuan bond yields, fell to 2.97 percent from a record 6.2 percent on Jan. 18.
“More stability is returning to the Chinese currency and swap rates have come down very sharply,” Schroders’ De Mello said in a March 16 phone interview. “That’s really among the main reasons for the much, much better performance of Dim Sum bonds recently.”
Debt Issuance
Certificate of deposit issuance accounted for most of the offshore sales in March. HSBC Holdings Plc, the top underwriter for such debt in the last five years, forecast in December that gross sales including CDs this year will extend a decline to 260 billion yuan-300 billion yuan from last year’s 423 billion yuan.
Sales of yuan-denominated debt excluding certificates of deposit fell 32 percent to 163 billion yuan in 2015, the first decline since the market’s inception in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Issuance in the first quarter was about a third of the amount of a year earlier at 12.1 billion yuan, largely because Chinese companies can get cheaper funding in Shanghai.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia issued 150 million yuan of three-year debt at a coupon rate of 5.095 percent earlier this month, while Goldman Sachs Group sold two-year notes at 5.23 percent.
“As the currency market stabilizes, Dim Sum is clawing back lost ground, albeit slowly,” said Raymond Gui, a Hong Kong-based senior portfolio manager at Income Partners Asset Management Ltd., which oversees $1.7 billion. “For issuers, if the cost keeps falling, it will reach a level that will lure more sales."
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Helen Sun in Shanghai at hsun30@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Richard Frost at rfrost4@bloomberg.net, Robin Ganguly, Sandy Hendry
The Dim Sum bond market is starting to show a pulse after expectations for swings in China’s currency dropped the most among major currencies this month.
“I do expect that the worst part of the currency uncertainty is behind us, but I’m also realistic that there is still concern about potential depreciation, which might keep yields from going down too much in the offshore market,” said Rajeev De Mello, who oversees about $10 billion as head of Asian fixed income at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in Singapore. “The higher yields, compared with the U.S. and many other countries, are going to be an attraction.”
While the average yield on offshore yuan bonds climbed to a record 6.18 percent on Jan. 28 -- compared with 1.03 percent on three-year Treasuries -- investors were reluctant to pile into the debt amid turmoil in the yuan and local stocks. Sentiment is slowly turning, with the yuan erasing its losses for the year and officials trying to soothe frayed nerves.
PBOC Deputy Governor Yi Gang said in a press conference on March 12 that the yuan’s internationalization and the development of the offshore market are driven by market forces. Policy makers have gone to extreme lengths to prop up the yuan -- ramping up intervention, clamping down on capital outflows and waging a rare verbal campaign to restore confidence in the currency.
Global sovereign issuers are lending a hand. China’s Ministry of Finance is said to have chosen London to issue the first yuan-denominated bonds outside of Hong Kong and the mainland, following the PBOC’s sale of 5 billion yuan of one-year bills in October. The Hungarian government is primarily looking at selling yuan bonds outside China.
Yuan Rally
The yuan traded in Hong Kong has risen 1.5 percent so far this year, while the onshore rate has advanced 0.2 percent. Both fell to five-year lows in January as the PBOC sought to punish speculators trying to take advantage of the difference in the two rates. Yuan deposits in Hong Kong, the biggest offshore pool, shrank 15 percent last year in their first annual drop, before rising 0.1 percent in January to 852 billion yuan, according to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Spillover Effect
“Given the shrinking pool following the depreciation, it was impossible for the Dim Sum market to not feel the spillover effects,” said Yang Xi, a Beijing-based analyst at Citic Securities Co., China’s biggest broker. “Now that the currency is stabilizing, we still think there are plenty of opportunities as the yuan’s globalization push is still on the top leadership’s agenda.”
Twelve-month forwards for the offshore yuan have rallied 2 percent so far this month in Hong Kong, outperforming the exchange rate’s 1.2 percent gain, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The one-year cross-currency swap rate, a leading indicator for offshore yuan bond yields, fell to 2.97 percent from a record 6.2 percent on Jan. 18.
“More stability is returning to the Chinese currency and swap rates have come down very sharply,” Schroders’ De Mello said in a March 16 phone interview. “That’s really among the main reasons for the much, much better performance of Dim Sum bonds recently.”
Debt Issuance
Certificate of deposit issuance accounted for most of the offshore sales in March. HSBC Holdings Plc, the top underwriter for such debt in the last five years, forecast in December that gross sales including CDs this year will extend a decline to 260 billion yuan-300 billion yuan from last year’s 423 billion yuan.
Sales of yuan-denominated debt excluding certificates of deposit fell 32 percent to 163 billion yuan in 2015, the first decline since the market’s inception in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Issuance in the first quarter was about a third of the amount of a year earlier at 12.1 billion yuan, largely because Chinese companies can get cheaper funding in Shanghai.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia issued 150 million yuan of three-year debt at a coupon rate of 5.095 percent earlier this month, while Goldman Sachs Group sold two-year notes at 5.23 percent.
“As the currency market stabilizes, Dim Sum is clawing back lost ground, albeit slowly,” said Raymond Gui, a Hong Kong-based senior portfolio manager at Income Partners Asset Management Ltd., which oversees $1.7 billion. “For issuers, if the cost keeps falling, it will reach a level that will lure more sales."
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Helen Sun in Shanghai at hsun30@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Richard Frost at rfrost4@bloomberg.net, Robin Ganguly, Sandy Hendry
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Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔