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Traders Vent Frustrations as Monetary Policies Buffet Currencies
Traders Vent Frustrations as Monetary Policies Buffet Currencies
by
Bloomberg News
Foreign-exchange traders are growing increasingly exasperated with central banks.Incessant shifts in monetary policy around the world are frustrating participants...
Foreign-exchange traders are growing increasingly exasperated with central banks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Global FX Volatility Index reached the highest since 2012 last month on a closing basis. And yet currency speculators were unable to take full advantage, with the Parker Global Currency Manager Index showing 2016 to be the second-worst start to a year in the past five.
What’s more, with Chinese growth slowing and causing a slump in oil and commodities prices, weaker exchange rates no longer readily translate to the increase in consumer prices most rich-world central banks use to benchmark their economies. A group of 16 major currencies fell an average 21 percent against the dollar since the end of 2012, yet inflation in developed economies slowed to 0.4 percent from 2.1 percent in that period.
It’s leading some investors to question central banks’ entire inflation-targeting regime.
“This competitive devaluation and the policy behind it are completely futile,” said Stephen Jen, the London-based co-founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP and a former International Monetary Fund economist. “There’s no evidence that it’s working and it’s doing more harm than good to global financial markets.”
The JPMorgan global currency volatility index touched 12.5 percent in February, the highest since 2012, and has risen from as low last year as 8.8 percent. It has averaged 9.5 percent over the past five years.
Now currency dealers are gearing up for Thursday’s policy decision from the European Central Bank. A 10 basis-point cut to a minus 0.4 percent deposit rate is fully priced in by swaps traders and nearly three-fourths of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict it will also expand its monthly bond purchases after inflation in the euro-area fell in February at an annual rate of 0.2 percent.
Race Downward
A race to the bottom on interest rates is making currency markets more volatile, according to Jason Leinwand, a New York-based managing director at Riverside Risk Advisors LLC, which advises clients on foreign-exchange risk and hedging strategies.
He recommends selling the yen on the prospect of more monetary easing because, he said, the Bank of Japan “won’t stand for” an exchange rate much stronger than 110 yen per dollar, compared with about 112.5 yen in New York on Wednesday.
“Currency volatility is not going to come down,” Leinwand said. “There will be more pressure on currencies from the shorter-term investor, which are the ones moving the market now.”
Negative Rates
Unsettled by the price swings, foreign-exchange traders are now starting to question whether all this central bank action is worthwhile -- and even whether policy makers need to retain their inflation targets in the current environment -- particularly if their actions snowball into competitive devaluations referred to as a currency war.
From the U.S. to Japan, and Switzerland to Sweden, more than 20 mostly developed economies have cut rates or taken other measures to ease policy since the start of last year -- moves that should stoke growth and inflation by expanding the supply of money. Many of these economies target annual price growth of about 2 percent.
“The question then is whether the latest undershoot in prices is only cyclical or structural,” said Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole’s corporate and investment bank unit. “Central banks are trying to trigger a sharp currency depreciation and then do what they can to sustain that weakness, hoping it will filter into higher inflation. The inflation target is central to the currency wars.”
Inflation targeting was first implemented by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 1990, according to the International Monetary Fund. It was adopted in the 1990s by Australia, Canada, Sweden and the U.K. The euro area followed, with Ben S. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve setting a price-growth target for the first time in 2012. And there’s little evidence that policy makers in developed economies are preparing to extricate themselves from those targets, or the policies intended to help achieve them.
A currency war is a high price to pay for the promise of faster inflation at some point in the future, said Scott Mather, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California.
“One of the designs of the negative-rate policy, and central banks have sort of admitted it, is that the primary channel it works is through the exchange-rate channel,” Mather said. “Sometimes the cure can be worse than the disease.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net, Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net, David Goodman at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net, Paul Armstrong, Paul Cox
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Global FX Volatility Index reached the highest since 2012 last month on a closing basis. And yet currency speculators were unable to take full advantage, with the Parker Global Currency Manager Index showing 2016 to be the second-worst start to a year in the past five.
What’s more, with Chinese growth slowing and causing a slump in oil and commodities prices, weaker exchange rates no longer readily translate to the increase in consumer prices most rich-world central banks use to benchmark their economies. A group of 16 major currencies fell an average 21 percent against the dollar since the end of 2012, yet inflation in developed economies slowed to 0.4 percent from 2.1 percent in that period.
It’s leading some investors to question central banks’ entire inflation-targeting regime.
“This competitive devaluation and the policy behind it are completely futile,” said Stephen Jen, the London-based co-founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP and a former International Monetary Fund economist. “There’s no evidence that it’s working and it’s doing more harm than good to global financial markets.”
The JPMorgan global currency volatility index touched 12.5 percent in February, the highest since 2012, and has risen from as low last year as 8.8 percent. It has averaged 9.5 percent over the past five years.
Now currency dealers are gearing up for Thursday’s policy decision from the European Central Bank. A 10 basis-point cut to a minus 0.4 percent deposit rate is fully priced in by swaps traders and nearly three-fourths of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict it will also expand its monthly bond purchases after inflation in the euro-area fell in February at an annual rate of 0.2 percent.
Race Downward
A race to the bottom on interest rates is making currency markets more volatile, according to Jason Leinwand, a New York-based managing director at Riverside Risk Advisors LLC, which advises clients on foreign-exchange risk and hedging strategies.
He recommends selling the yen on the prospect of more monetary easing because, he said, the Bank of Japan “won’t stand for” an exchange rate much stronger than 110 yen per dollar, compared with about 112.5 yen in New York on Wednesday.
“Currency volatility is not going to come down,” Leinwand said. “There will be more pressure on currencies from the shorter-term investor, which are the ones moving the market now.”
Negative Rates
Unsettled by the price swings, foreign-exchange traders are now starting to question whether all this central bank action is worthwhile -- and even whether policy makers need to retain their inflation targets in the current environment -- particularly if their actions snowball into competitive devaluations referred to as a currency war.
From the U.S. to Japan, and Switzerland to Sweden, more than 20 mostly developed economies have cut rates or taken other measures to ease policy since the start of last year -- moves that should stoke growth and inflation by expanding the supply of money. Many of these economies target annual price growth of about 2 percent.
“The question then is whether the latest undershoot in prices is only cyclical or structural,” said Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Credit Agricole’s corporate and investment bank unit. “Central banks are trying to trigger a sharp currency depreciation and then do what they can to sustain that weakness, hoping it will filter into higher inflation. The inflation target is central to the currency wars.”
Inflation targeting was first implemented by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 1990, according to the International Monetary Fund. It was adopted in the 1990s by Australia, Canada, Sweden and the U.K. The euro area followed, with Ben S. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve setting a price-growth target for the first time in 2012. And there’s little evidence that policy makers in developed economies are preparing to extricate themselves from those targets, or the policies intended to help achieve them.
A currency war is a high price to pay for the promise of faster inflation at some point in the future, said Scott Mather, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California.
“One of the designs of the negative-rate policy, and central banks have sort of admitted it, is that the primary channel it works is through the exchange-rate channel,” Mather said. “Sometimes the cure can be worse than the disease.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net, Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net, David Goodman at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net, Paul Armstrong, Paul Cox
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
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Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
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▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔