Long Term Cyclical Influence Nears for AUD/USD

• EURUSD / from support to resistance in a few hours!
• GBP/USD follows through on weekly tweezer bottom
• AUD/USD massive cycle at work

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EUR/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-There is no change to recent EUR/USD comments. “The failed breakout could be bearish but EURUSD is still in a range (could end up as a triangle or flat from the 2015 low) and levels to pay attention to for support are 1.0872 (year open) and 1.0820 (May and July 2015 lows). There’s no reason to get fancy here...this is a range and upside levels to pay attention within the range for resistance are 1.1180 and 1.1250. A break above 1.1500 would argue for the flat pattern interpretation into the mid-1.20s.”

-For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

GBP/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-Last week, FXTW wrote that the “close on last week’s low and the low to high move this week leave us with a ‘tweezer bottom’ candlestick formation (FXTW pointed out tweezer bottoms in AUD/USD at the September and January lows). This is a reversal pattern. The fact that the pattern formed amid the chaos of headlines (sentiment extreme on ‘Brexit Brexit Brexit stands for British Exit, or in reference to the United Kingdom’s decision to formally leave the European Union (EU) as declared in a June 23, 2016 referendum. In a more immediate sense, a tight vote and unexpected result helped drive British pound (GBP) to lows that had not been seen in decades.The day following the referendum, former Prime Minister David Cameron resigned from office where he was replaced by Theresa May, who later resigned from office on June 7th, 2019. Active Prime Minis Brexit stands for British Exit, or in reference to the United Kingdom’s decision to formally leave the European Union (EU) as declared in a June 23, 2016 referendum. In a more immediate sense, a tight vote and unexpected result helped drive British pound (GBP) to lows that had not been seen in decades.The day following the referendum, former Prime Minister David Cameron resigned from office where he was replaced by Theresa May, who later resigned from office on June 7th, 2019. Active Prime Minis Read this Term’) and at a confluence of trendlines (see below) indicates increased risk for a decent sized bounce.” Cable has followed through on the reversal pattern, which is seen as a positive. General focus is higher on dips, probably until the low 1.50s.

GBP/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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AUD/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-FXTW has maintained since the start of 2016 that “divergence with RSI on the weekly serves as a bullish reversal warning and that resistance may reside in the mid .7400s.” AUD/USD has pressed into the mid.7400s and then some. A .7600 handle was nearly printed today (3/11). Be aware of possible resistance from former support near .7600 (June 2015 low and breakdown level from last July).

-The 2nd week of April is lining up as a potentially important pivot in time. The 1993 and 2001 lows (latter is the all-time low) are exactly 392 weeks apart. 392 weeks from the 2001 low is the week of the October 2008 crash (the low was 3 weeks later). 392 weeks from the October 2008 crash is the week of April 11th. My colleague Kristian Kerr, whose cycle work is a must read, often stresses the importance of what a market is doing into a time window. In other words, a high/low could form if the market is heading into resistance/support within the window (and if other conditions are met of course). Also, a break of a key level during this time would warn of possible acceleration in the same direction. Context is key (always is). For now, just know that the week of April 11th is a big point on the X-Axis for Aussie.

NZD/USD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-NZD/USD has taken FXTW for a ride in recent weeks, and it’s been uncomfortable. Failures shy of the long term median line throughout February were viewed in a bearish light until last week’s outside bullish action lent near term action a more constructive look. The constructive look is maintained as long as above .6565.

USD/JPY

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-There is no change to longer term USD/JPY comments. “USD/JPY has completed a head and shoulders pattern and the objective is mid-105.00s. There is a lot at 105, including the top side of the 2002-2007 line, the January 2014 high, and October 2014 low. Trading levels to be aware of include 110.00s (October 2014 high) and 115.50s-116.20s (breakdown level).”

USD/CAD

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-There is no change to longer term USD/CAD comments. “USD/CAD topped at 1.4689 in January (78.6% of 2002-2007 decline) and is nearing the 61.8% measurement / October 2015 high at 1.3462. That level could provide support but any bullish operations may want to hold off until the 55 week average / internal trendline near 1.30 given the break below a 9 month trendline.”

USD/CHF

Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

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-USD/CHF is consolidating and there is nothing else to add to previous comments regarding the longer term picture at this time. “Some extremely long term technical considerations are worthy of note when looking at USD/CHF. Read about them here. Levels for possible support on this decline are .9595 (trendline and January 2012 high) and just below .9400 (trendline and 200 week average).”

Bonus Chart

Copper (COMEX) Weekly

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

-FXTW wrote about copper 4 weeks ago (also see here), noting that “copper looks the most constructive that it has in years. From an FX perspective, this could be tailwind for AUD/USD.” ‘Dr. Copper’ broke out in early March. The high for the move so far is 2.3. The inverse head and shoulders pattern yields an objective of 2.3435 (4% higher than current). The level is more or less in line with a median line which was precise support in December 2014 and April 2015 and resistance in September 2015. Bottom line, 2.3435 could provide resistance in copper. Pay attention to AUD/USD when (if) copper reaches this level, especially if during the week of April 11th (read the AUD/USD piece above to understand why!).

original source

By: Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist