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`Brexit' Fretting at Bank of England May Be About to Intensify
`Brexit' Fretting at Bank of England May Be About to Intensify
by
Bloomberg News
With Britain’s referendum on the European Union exactly three months away, Bank of England officials are agonizing over the...
With Britain’s referendum on the European Union exactly three months away, Bank of England officials are agonizing over the dangers from a vote to leave.
On Wednesday, Mark Carney will chair the Financial Policy Committee’s first formal meeting of the year -- and its last before Britain’s June 23 referendum. Just two weeks after the governor declared an exit vote as the biggest domestic risk to financial stability, officials can now ratify contingency planning for a threat that has rattled investors enough to force a plunge in the pound and a spike in sterling volatility.
The BOE’s key interest rate has been a record-low 0.5 percent for seven years and, with a hike probably still some time away, the onus is on the FPC to keep imbalances in check. The central bank is already drawing up contingency plans for a British exit from the EU and will offer extra liquidity to the financial system around the referendum.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne singled out the 10-member FPC last week in his budget speech, asking it to be “particularly vigilant in the face of current market turbulence.” The committee will publish a statement from its meeting on March 29.
“The BOE will be considering where we are in the credit and economic cycle and what we need to do to lean into it,” said Mick Grady, an economist at Aviva Investors and a former BOE official. “When rates have been so low for a very long time, the cracks start getting a bit wider.”
Risk Amplifier
While the central bank has so far tried to skirt the Brexit debate, the FPC, responsible for protecting the resilience of the financial system, will need to consider the potential threats. In the past, sections of its discussions deemed to be too sensitive were redacted and released only at a later date.
Asked about Brexit by lawmakers on March 8, Carney said it’s the “biggest domestic risk to financial stability because, in part, of the issues surrounding uncertainty” but also because it could “amplify” other risks.
After this month, the next scheduled FPC meeting will take place on June 28 -- after the referendum -- though some “issues meetings” may occur before that. Carney has said he’ll respect a purdah in the run-up to the vote.
The FPC may also discuss banks’ resilience this week. In December, officials said they intend gradually to increase the countercyclical capital buffer to 1 percent from zero as the economy recovers. That divided the committee, with some saying it was “too soon” for an increase.
Housing is also likely to feature, with mortgage lending surging and prices rising. After the FPC’s December meeting, Carney cited the commercial and buy-to-let real-estate markets, as well as household debt and the current-account deficit, as signs that stability risks were increasing.
Charles Goodhart, a former BOE policy maker, has said recent mortgage figures suggest there’s “a lot of potential heat in housing.”
“What the FPC needs to think about now is about countercyclical capital buffer rises and how that is going to work, particularly in the context of how it would interact with monetary policy,” said Chris Hare, an economist at Investec in London. “There are those ongoing issues in the housing market, the buy-to-let market in particular. Those seem to be the pinch points.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Emma Charlton in London at echarlton1@bloomberg.net, Jill Ward in London at jward98@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net.
With Britain’s referendum on the European Union exactly three months away, Bank of England officials are agonizing over the dangers from a vote to leave.
On Wednesday, Mark Carney will chair the Financial Policy Committee’s first formal meeting of the year -- and its last before Britain’s June 23 referendum. Just two weeks after the governor declared an exit vote as the biggest domestic risk to financial stability, officials can now ratify contingency planning for a threat that has rattled investors enough to force a plunge in the pound and a spike in sterling volatility.
The BOE’s key interest rate has been a record-low 0.5 percent for seven years and, with a hike probably still some time away, the onus is on the FPC to keep imbalances in check. The central bank is already drawing up contingency plans for a British exit from the EU and will offer extra liquidity to the financial system around the referendum.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne singled out the 10-member FPC last week in his budget speech, asking it to be “particularly vigilant in the face of current market turbulence.” The committee will publish a statement from its meeting on March 29.
“The BOE will be considering where we are in the credit and economic cycle and what we need to do to lean into it,” said Mick Grady, an economist at Aviva Investors and a former BOE official. “When rates have been so low for a very long time, the cracks start getting a bit wider.”
Risk Amplifier
While the central bank has so far tried to skirt the Brexit debate, the FPC, responsible for protecting the resilience of the financial system, will need to consider the potential threats. In the past, sections of its discussions deemed to be too sensitive were redacted and released only at a later date.
Asked about Brexit by lawmakers on March 8, Carney said it’s the “biggest domestic risk to financial stability because, in part, of the issues surrounding uncertainty” but also because it could “amplify” other risks.
After this month, the next scheduled FPC meeting will take place on June 28 -- after the referendum -- though some “issues meetings” may occur before that. Carney has said he’ll respect a purdah in the run-up to the vote.
The FPC may also discuss banks’ resilience this week. In December, officials said they intend gradually to increase the countercyclical capital buffer to 1 percent from zero as the economy recovers. That divided the committee, with some saying it was “too soon” for an increase.
Housing is also likely to feature, with mortgage lending surging and prices rising. After the FPC’s December meeting, Carney cited the commercial and buy-to-let real-estate markets, as well as household debt and the current-account deficit, as signs that stability risks were increasing.
Charles Goodhart, a former BOE policy maker, has said recent mortgage figures suggest there’s “a lot of potential heat in housing.”
“What the FPC needs to think about now is about countercyclical capital buffer rises and how that is going to work, particularly in the context of how it would interact with monetary policy,” said Chris Hare, an economist at Investec in London. “There are those ongoing issues in the housing market, the buy-to-let market in particular. Those seem to be the pinch points.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Emma Charlton in London at echarlton1@bloomberg.net, Jill Ward in London at jward98@bloomberg.net. To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O'Brien at fobrien@bloomberg.net, Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net.
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FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
FMAS:24 | Sneak Peak
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa