The dollar index , DXY, had a great start to the new decade, as the currency turned higher from December 31, 2019, and never looked back until February 20. At one point the USD was up by 3.67%, and against the Euro, the dollar reached new multi-year highs.
However, since the onset of the second leg of the Coronavirus
Coronavirus
The outbreak of Covid-19 or Coronavirus in early 2020 has since redefined the financial services industry. Brokers have been forced to quickly adapt to several changes, both positive and negative.This includes the FX industry, which saw surges in volumes across the retail and institutional space in Q1 2020. This trend can be explained by an outflow of volatility, coupled with countries taking major moves to stabilize their respective economies.In conjunction with uncertainty caused by the virus, most countries also resorted to lockdowns in a bid to stifle the virus’ spread. At the time of writing, nobody knows whether this tactic will succeed in controlling Covid-19, though its early impact on financial markets is being felt already.Equity markets across most exchanges effectively crumbled by nearly a third in early 2020, with the worst being seen in March 2020. Stock markets have since rebounded, though only with the help of broad-based stimulus programs. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the United States, with the Federal Reserve resorting to measures not used since the Great Financial Crisis. This included trillions in bond-buying purchases in a bid to stabilize the economy.The outbreak of Covid-19 also saw the collapse of the global oil market, which saw futures briefly enter into negative territory. Highly reduced demand out of China and most economies, as well as a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia have exacerbated this trend.Effects of Covid-19 on BrokersIn the retail space, forex brokers have experienced an early surge in trading volumes in 2020. This can be explained by a large uptick in potential clients, ironically due to stay at home orders and quarantining.It remains to be seen whether this trend will hold longer term as middle-aged potential investors return to work in 2020. In terms of other operations, brokers have had to rethink traditional call centers and other mechanisms for reaching clients due to the disruption of the virus.A push for online call centers and other such support is likely to overtake other methods of dealing with clients with a vaccine as of yet not available. Longer-term, a looming recession can also potentially impact brokers with the pool of investors once again possibly shrinking. As the situation of Covid-19 is unprecedented, brokers have joined other entities in a wait-and-see mode.
The outbreak of Covid-19 or Coronavirus in early 2020 has since redefined the financial services industry. Brokers have been forced to quickly adapt to several changes, both positive and negative.This includes the FX industry, which saw surges in volumes across the retail and institutional space in Q1 2020. This trend can be explained by an outflow of volatility, coupled with countries taking major moves to stabilize their respective economies.In conjunction with uncertainty caused by the virus, most countries also resorted to lockdowns in a bid to stifle the virus’ spread. At the time of writing, nobody knows whether this tactic will succeed in controlling Covid-19, though its early impact on financial markets is being felt already.Equity markets across most exchanges effectively crumbled by nearly a third in early 2020, with the worst being seen in March 2020. Stock markets have since rebounded, though only with the help of broad-based stimulus programs. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the United States, with the Federal Reserve resorting to measures not used since the Great Financial Crisis. This included trillions in bond-buying purchases in a bid to stabilize the economy.The outbreak of Covid-19 also saw the collapse of the global oil market, which saw futures briefly enter into negative territory. Highly reduced demand out of China and most economies, as well as a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia have exacerbated this trend.Effects of Covid-19 on BrokersIn the retail space, forex brokers have experienced an early surge in trading volumes in 2020. This can be explained by a large uptick in potential clients, ironically due to stay at home orders and quarantining.It remains to be seen whether this trend will hold longer term as middle-aged potential investors return to work in 2020. In terms of other operations, brokers have had to rethink traditional call centers and other mechanisms for reaching clients due to the disruption of the virus.A push for online call centers and other such support is likely to overtake other methods of dealing with clients with a vaccine as of yet not available. Longer-term, a looming recession can also potentially impact brokers with the pool of investors once again possibly shrinking. As the situation of Covid-19 is unprecedented, brokers have joined other entities in a wait-and-see mode.
Read this Term
The slide in the USD and gain in the dollar has come to a surprise to many traders as the coronavirus crisis is threatening to shut down the European economy primarily.
Europe might have excellent health care for all of its citizens; however, they lack the will to close their borders to contain the spread. If they eventually close the borders, it will inevitably cause the already week European economy into recession.
Despite the economic risks being in Europe, the USD has weakened, and the Euro has strengthened. I think the reason for this is that investors have been borrowing cheaply in Europe, where interest rates are low, to fund investments elsewhere.
However, when there is a risk of the global economy turning into a recession, the yield advantage the USD is offering not enough to compensate for the Volatility
Volatility
In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, but the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Why Too Much Volatility is a ProblemIn the FX space, lower volatile currency pairs offer less surprises, and are suited to position traders.High volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders, due to quick and strong movements, offering the potential for higher profits, although the risk associated with such volatile pairs are many. Overall, a look at previous volatility tells us how likely price will fluctuate in the future, although it has nothing to do with direction.All a trader can gather from this is the understanding that the probability of a volatile pair to increase or decrease an X amount in a Y period of time, is more than the probability of a non-volatile pair. Another important factor is, volatility can and does change over time, and there can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much, we uncertainty in excess can create panic and problems of liquidity. This was evident during Black Swan events or other crisis that have historically roiled currency and equity markets.
In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, but the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Why Too Much Volatility is a ProblemIn the FX space, lower volatile currency pairs offer less surprises, and are suited to position traders.High volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders, due to quick and strong movements, offering the potential for higher profits, although the risk associated with such volatile pairs are many. Overall, a look at previous volatility tells us how likely price will fluctuate in the future, although it has nothing to do with direction.All a trader can gather from this is the understanding that the probability of a volatile pair to increase or decrease an X amount in a Y period of time, is more than the probability of a non-volatile pair. Another important factor is, volatility can and does change over time, and there can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much, we uncertainty in excess can create panic and problems of liquidity. This was evident during Black Swan events or other crisis that have historically roiled currency and equity markets.
Read this Term
At the same time, the Federal Reserve, on March 3, delivered a surprise 50 basis points rate cuts, this was a complete surprise for the markets as it was outside of their regular meeting dates.
They cut to smooth out the risk of the Coronavirus, and the impact of China shutting down from the Chinese New Year. However, despite the outsized rate cut, we did not see the dollar take out the long-term channel seen in the DXY index below.
Technical outlook US Dollar Since 2018, the Dollar index, DXY, has been trading slowly higher and the channel seen below has been good at pointing out important levels in the index.
As the Federal Reserve cut its interest rates the USD tried to reach the lower upward-pointing trendline, but the dollar was not able to break it.
A retest of the trend line might happen in the next few days, but the large interest rate cut by the Federal reserve, probably means that they will not change rate in the next two months, so speculators will have problems pricing in interest rate cuts in the USD in the very near term.
On the other hand, the pressure is now on the ECB to support its economy, and they might cut or add to their QE.
Technically, the trend in the USD will remain upwards as long as the price traded above the 2020 low of 96.34, and the USD might revisit the median line of the channel, currently at 98.40.
This article was written by Alejandro Zambrano, Chief Market Strategist, ATFX.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is sponsored and does not represent the opinions of Finance Magnates.
The dollar index , DXY, had a great start to the new decade, as the currency turned higher from December 31, 2019, and never looked back until February 20. At one point the USD was up by 3.67%, and against the Euro, the dollar reached new multi-year highs.
However, since the onset of the second leg of the Coronavirus
Coronavirus
The outbreak of Covid-19 or Coronavirus in early 2020 has since redefined the financial services industry. Brokers have been forced to quickly adapt to several changes, both positive and negative.This includes the FX industry, which saw surges in volumes across the retail and institutional space in Q1 2020. This trend can be explained by an outflow of volatility, coupled with countries taking major moves to stabilize their respective economies.In conjunction with uncertainty caused by the virus, most countries also resorted to lockdowns in a bid to stifle the virus’ spread. At the time of writing, nobody knows whether this tactic will succeed in controlling Covid-19, though its early impact on financial markets is being felt already.Equity markets across most exchanges effectively crumbled by nearly a third in early 2020, with the worst being seen in March 2020. Stock markets have since rebounded, though only with the help of broad-based stimulus programs. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the United States, with the Federal Reserve resorting to measures not used since the Great Financial Crisis. This included trillions in bond-buying purchases in a bid to stabilize the economy.The outbreak of Covid-19 also saw the collapse of the global oil market, which saw futures briefly enter into negative territory. Highly reduced demand out of China and most economies, as well as a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia have exacerbated this trend.Effects of Covid-19 on BrokersIn the retail space, forex brokers have experienced an early surge in trading volumes in 2020. This can be explained by a large uptick in potential clients, ironically due to stay at home orders and quarantining.It remains to be seen whether this trend will hold longer term as middle-aged potential investors return to work in 2020. In terms of other operations, brokers have had to rethink traditional call centers and other mechanisms for reaching clients due to the disruption of the virus.A push for online call centers and other such support is likely to overtake other methods of dealing with clients with a vaccine as of yet not available. Longer-term, a looming recession can also potentially impact brokers with the pool of investors once again possibly shrinking. As the situation of Covid-19 is unprecedented, brokers have joined other entities in a wait-and-see mode.
The outbreak of Covid-19 or Coronavirus in early 2020 has since redefined the financial services industry. Brokers have been forced to quickly adapt to several changes, both positive and negative.This includes the FX industry, which saw surges in volumes across the retail and institutional space in Q1 2020. This trend can be explained by an outflow of volatility, coupled with countries taking major moves to stabilize their respective economies.In conjunction with uncertainty caused by the virus, most countries also resorted to lockdowns in a bid to stifle the virus’ spread. At the time of writing, nobody knows whether this tactic will succeed in controlling Covid-19, though its early impact on financial markets is being felt already.Equity markets across most exchanges effectively crumbled by nearly a third in early 2020, with the worst being seen in March 2020. Stock markets have since rebounded, though only with the help of broad-based stimulus programs. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the United States, with the Federal Reserve resorting to measures not used since the Great Financial Crisis. This included trillions in bond-buying purchases in a bid to stabilize the economy.The outbreak of Covid-19 also saw the collapse of the global oil market, which saw futures briefly enter into negative territory. Highly reduced demand out of China and most economies, as well as a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia have exacerbated this trend.Effects of Covid-19 on BrokersIn the retail space, forex brokers have experienced an early surge in trading volumes in 2020. This can be explained by a large uptick in potential clients, ironically due to stay at home orders and quarantining.It remains to be seen whether this trend will hold longer term as middle-aged potential investors return to work in 2020. In terms of other operations, brokers have had to rethink traditional call centers and other mechanisms for reaching clients due to the disruption of the virus.A push for online call centers and other such support is likely to overtake other methods of dealing with clients with a vaccine as of yet not available. Longer-term, a looming recession can also potentially impact brokers with the pool of investors once again possibly shrinking. As the situation of Covid-19 is unprecedented, brokers have joined other entities in a wait-and-see mode.
Read this Term
The slide in the USD and gain in the dollar has come to a surprise to many traders as the coronavirus crisis is threatening to shut down the European economy primarily.
Europe might have excellent health care for all of its citizens; however, they lack the will to close their borders to contain the spread. If they eventually close the borders, it will inevitably cause the already week European economy into recession.
Despite the economic risks being in Europe, the USD has weakened, and the Euro has strengthened. I think the reason for this is that investors have been borrowing cheaply in Europe, where interest rates are low, to fund investments elsewhere.
However, when there is a risk of the global economy turning into a recession, the yield advantage the USD is offering not enough to compensate for the Volatility
Volatility
In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, but the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Why Too Much Volatility is a ProblemIn the FX space, lower volatile currency pairs offer less surprises, and are suited to position traders.High volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders, due to quick and strong movements, offering the potential for higher profits, although the risk associated with such volatile pairs are many. Overall, a look at previous volatility tells us how likely price will fluctuate in the future, although it has nothing to do with direction.All a trader can gather from this is the understanding that the probability of a volatile pair to increase or decrease an X amount in a Y period of time, is more than the probability of a non-volatile pair. Another important factor is, volatility can and does change over time, and there can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much, we uncertainty in excess can create panic and problems of liquidity. This was evident during Black Swan events or other crisis that have historically roiled currency and equity markets.
In finance, volatility refers to the amount of change in the rate of a financial instrument, such as commodities, currencies, stocks, over a given time period. Essentially, volatility describes the nature of an instrument’s fluctuation; a highly volatile security equates to large fluctuations in price, and a low volatile security equates to timid fluctuations in price. Volatility is an important statistical indicator used by financial traders to assist them in developing trading systems. Traders can be successful in both low and high volatile environments, but the strategies employed are often different depending upon volatility. Why Too Much Volatility is a ProblemIn the FX space, lower volatile currency pairs offer less surprises, and are suited to position traders.High volatile pairs are attractive for many day traders, due to quick and strong movements, offering the potential for higher profits, although the risk associated with such volatile pairs are many. Overall, a look at previous volatility tells us how likely price will fluctuate in the future, although it has nothing to do with direction.All a trader can gather from this is the understanding that the probability of a volatile pair to increase or decrease an X amount in a Y period of time, is more than the probability of a non-volatile pair. Another important factor is, volatility can and does change over time, and there can be periods when even highly volatile instruments show signs of flatness, with price not really making headway in either direction. Too little volatility is just as problematic for markets as too much, we uncertainty in excess can create panic and problems of liquidity. This was evident during Black Swan events or other crisis that have historically roiled currency and equity markets.
Read this Term
At the same time, the Federal Reserve, on March 3, delivered a surprise 50 basis points rate cuts, this was a complete surprise for the markets as it was outside of their regular meeting dates.
They cut to smooth out the risk of the Coronavirus, and the impact of China shutting down from the Chinese New Year. However, despite the outsized rate cut, we did not see the dollar take out the long-term channel seen in the DXY index below.
Technical outlook US Dollar Since 2018, the Dollar index, DXY, has been trading slowly higher and the channel seen below has been good at pointing out important levels in the index.
As the Federal Reserve cut its interest rates the USD tried to reach the lower upward-pointing trendline, but the dollar was not able to break it.
A retest of the trend line might happen in the next few days, but the large interest rate cut by the Federal reserve, probably means that they will not change rate in the next two months, so speculators will have problems pricing in interest rate cuts in the USD in the very near term.
On the other hand, the pressure is now on the ECB to support its economy, and they might cut or add to their QE.
Technically, the trend in the USD will remain upwards as long as the price traded above the 2020 low of 96.34, and the USD might revisit the median line of the channel, currently at 98.40.
This article was written by Alejandro Zambrano, Chief Market Strategist, ATFX.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is sponsored and does not represent the opinions of Finance Magnates.
