BOJ Under the Spotlight: Speculation Surrounds Monetary Policy Changes

The Bank of Japan is due to meet again this week, with the Decision Statement to be released at 3:00 AM GMT on Tuesday along with the Quarterly Outlook Report.

Japan has remained an outlier against its peers in recent times for being the only major central bank that has continued to implement accommodative monetary policies, while other central banks have adopted a more aggressive approach by raising interest rates to curb inflation.

There have, however, been rumblings of impending changes since the value of the yen fell below ¥150 per US dollar once again last week, which raised the possibility of official intervention in the currency market and increased the amount of pressure on the BoJ to make changes to its monetary policy.

Below we’ll take a look at what may influence the decisions of the BoJ this week, and what the experts have to say about it too.

Weighing currency risks

The BoJ is confronted with a challenging policy choice this week, especially since there is a possibility of the yen experiencing more depreciation if the anticipated policy adjustment is not implemented as predicted by some participants in the financial markets.

Nevertheless, its widely anticipated that the current ultralow interest rates and the recently established 1% threshold for 10-year Japanese government bond yields will be upheld this week. Which holds true even in the event that the central bank revises its inflation projections for fiscal years 2023 and 2024, as projected in its forthcoming quarterly outlook report scheduled for release following the meeting.

The BoJ endeavors to maintain low borrowing rates in order to attain stable inflation supported by wage growth. However, there has been a recent upward trend in 10-year yields, approaching 1%, and U.S. Treasury yields have also seen an increase due to the stickiness of inflation.

As a result of the BOJ's divergent easing policy, the Japanese yen has been hovering close to and recently breached the psychological barrier of ¥150 per US dollar. This weakening trend is fueled in part by rising U.S. Treasury yields, and it also keeps financial markets on alert about a potential new round of yen purchases by Japanese authorities.

Within the framework of its yield curve management initiative, the central bank establishes short-term interest rates at a rate of negative 0.1%, while simultaneously guiding 10-year yields to about 0%. However, the BoJ has implemented measures to encourage some flexibility, enabling 10-year rates to more accurately reflect economic fundamentals, provided that the yield stays below 1%.

The central bank made the decision to widen the trading band in July as they recognised the need to confront the reality that the yield cap program was hastening the devaluation of the yen. This was mostly owing to the program's lack of synchronization with the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as other international counterparts, who had quickly started a cycle of increasing interest rates.

Inflation and Employment

In September, the annual inflation rate in Japan saw a small decline to 3.0% from the previous month's figure of 3.2%, indicating the lowest recorded value since September 2022.

The core inflation rate also decreased to its lowest level in 13 months, reaching 2.8%. This figure was slightly higher than the market expected, and it remains well above the BoJ’s 2% target for the 18th consecutive month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices showed an increase of 0.3% in September, after a 0.2% growth seen in August.

The Tokyo Consumer Price Index figure from last Thursday, which was above expectations at 3.3%, is anticipated to serve as a cautionary signal for the BoJ. Even if a policy adjustment isn't implemented at the October meeting, its anticipated that the bank will modify its perspective on inflation.

The BoJ has maintained that rising import costs are the primary driver of price increases across the country and that, in order to prevent the country's economy from plunging back into decades of deflation, it must wait for more consistent wage growth indicators.

Fresh Employment data is due out later today, however, last month the Unemployment Rate in Japan remained constant at 2.7%, against market expectations of 2.6%. While the number of employed rose by 50,000 to 67.50 million, the number of unemployed rose by the same amount, to 1.85 million, maintaining the highest unemployment rate since March this year.

In conclusion

At its previous policy meeting in September, the BoJ indicated it was not seeking to wind down its stimulus program any time soon by maintaining its exceptionally low interest rates, and it reiterated its commitment to aid the economy until inflation consistently reaches its 2% target.

According to a recent poll conducted by Reuters, 25 out of the 28 economists predict that there will be no changes to the existing policies at the next meeting. Nonetheless, around two-thirds anticipate that the bank will terminate its negative interest rate policy during the next year.

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