ATFX Q1 2020 Market Outlook Report: Weighing Geopolitical Factors

ATFX has released its quarterly market outlook for Q1 2020 in which the brokerage lays out in-depth insights from leading market analysts for different regions.

Each gave their predictions on various currency pairs, commodities, and equity markets for 2020.

In this report, Alexandro Zambrano, the Chief Market Analyst for ATFX UK talks about the impact of regional economic growth rates for the EURUSD.

He also touches on the impact of Fed policies and US bond yields on other major currency pairs.

Furthermore, a robust analysis of factors affecting the GBPUSD currency pair’s outlook is also provided, with a particular focus on UK politics and the ongoing Brexit Brexit Brexit stands for British Exit, or in reference to the United Kingdom’s decision to formally leave the European Union (EU) as declared in a June 23, 2016 referendum. In a more immediate sense, a tight vote and unexpected result helped drive British pound (GBP) to lows that had not been seen in decades. The day following the referendum, former Prime Minister David Cameron resigned from office where he was replaced by Theresa May, who later resigned from office on June 7th, 2019. Active Prime Minister Boris Johnson was elected Prime Minister the following month, who was well-known as a headstrong Brexit supporter.  While the United Kingdom was predicted to leave exit the EU by October 31st, 2019, the U.K. Parliament sought out a deadline extension that delayed voting on the new deal.  Following Boris Johnson’s reelection, Brexit occurred on January 31st, 2020 at 11 pm Greenwich Mean Time.  Brexit Creating Ongoing Issues in with Europe While the United Kingdom is in a transition period following its departure from the EU, the U.K. is negotiating its complete trade relationship with the EU, which is the United Kingdom’s largest trade partner. Terms of this trade agreement must be met by January 1st, 2021. Should terms of this trade agreement take longer than the projected resolution date of January 1st, 2021 then the U.K. must acquire an extension no later than June 1st, 2020. Failure to do so will result in the U.K. is subject to tariff and host rule changes exercised by the E.U. This situation is referred to as the “no-deal” Brexit and should this occur the consequences could result in a significant fallout of the U.K. economy.  For the past few years, many banks and lenders operating previously in the UK had been given passporting rights to the European continent. The lingering uncertainty caused by Brexit resulted in many of these lenders relocating their European headquarters within continental Europe. Brexit stands for British Exit, or in reference to the United Kingdom’s decision to formally leave the European Union (EU) as declared in a June 23, 2016 referendum. In a more immediate sense, a tight vote and unexpected result helped drive British pound (GBP) to lows that had not been seen in decades. The day following the referendum, former Prime Minister David Cameron resigned from office where he was replaced by Theresa May, who later resigned from office on June 7th, 2019. Active Prime Minister Boris Johnson was elected Prime Minister the following month, who was well-known as a headstrong Brexit supporter.  While the United Kingdom was predicted to leave exit the EU by October 31st, 2019, the U.K. Parliament sought out a deadline extension that delayed voting on the new deal.  Following Boris Johnson’s reelection, Brexit occurred on January 31st, 2020 at 11 pm Greenwich Mean Time.  Brexit Creating Ongoing Issues in with Europe While the United Kingdom is in a transition period following its departure from the EU, the U.K. is negotiating its complete trade relationship with the EU, which is the United Kingdom’s largest trade partner. Terms of this trade agreement must be met by January 1st, 2021. Should terms of this trade agreement take longer than the projected resolution date of January 1st, 2021 then the U.K. must acquire an extension no later than June 1st, 2020. Failure to do so will result in the U.K. is subject to tariff and host rule changes exercised by the E.U. This situation is referred to as the “no-deal” Brexit and should this occur the consequences could result in a significant fallout of the U.K. economy.  For the past few years, many banks and lenders operating previously in the UK had been given passporting rights to the European continent. The lingering uncertainty caused by Brexit resulted in many of these lenders relocating their European headquarters within continental Europe. Read this Term process.

Additional emphasis is given to key technical levels to watch for across the major currency pairs as well as how these are likely to react around such levels are also included in this Quarter.

APAC currency outlook

An in-depth performance of the Japanese yen and key fundamental factors driving the yen’s price action are also included in the report. Readers will be able to grapple with the impact of Japan’s fiscal policies on its national currency.

The future of the Aussie was also analyzed at length, including the likely impact of key economic indicators on its performance.

Martin Lam, ATFX’s Chief Analyst for the Asia Pacific (APAC) region who is based in Hong Kong, also discussed commodities, including gold and crude oil.

“Gold prices tend to be dominated by the risk appetite of the market. In addition, the monetary policies and orientations of major countries such as the United States and the European Central Bank also affect the trend of gold price,” noted Mr. Lam.

He also commented on the outlook for crude oil prices, given existing risks as well as different supply and demand scenarios.

Ramy Abouzaid, the ATFX Head of Market Research based in the UAE, focused on other assets, such as global equity markets and indices.

Of note, he answered the question on most traders’ and investors’ minds regarding the rally witnessed in most global stock markets in the last quarter, especially if the rally will continue.

Mr. Abouzaid connects the dots between the various factors that triggered and sustained the recent rally in global stocks to figure out whether the rally is likely to keep going in Q1 2020.

The ATFX Q1 market outlook available on ATFX and investing cube’s quarterly market outlook page. You can download your free copy here.

Global financial daily analysis by ATFX’s Global Chief Market Strategist Alejandro Zambrano’s is also available here.

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• ATFX Global Markets (CY) Limited in Cyprus regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC CySEC The Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) is a financial regulatory authority of Cyprus. CySEC is one of the key watchdog authorities for brokerages in Europe, whose financial regulations and operations comply with the European MiFID financial harmonization law.Founded in 2001, CySEC is instrumental in providing licensing and registration for forex brokers and previously binary options providers.CySEC is responsible for a variety of different functions, which includes the supervision and control of the Cyprus Stock Exchange as well as transactions executed in the Stock Exchange, its listed companies, brokers and brokerage firms.Furthermore, the regulator also supervises and monitors Licensed Investment Services Companies, Collective Investment funds, investment consultants. and mutual fund management companies.CySEC’s Role in Combatting Market AbuseOne of CySEC’s most important functions is the granting of operation licenses to investment firms, including investment consultants, brokerage firms and brokers. This includes provisions for Cyprus Investment Firms (CIF), who provide and perform investment services and activities either within Cyprus or abroad on a professional basis on certain financial instruments.Finally, CySEC oversees the imposition of administrative sanctions and disciplinary penalties to brokers, brokerage firms, and investment consultants, among others. The group has been a key force in policing the forex and binary options space, which has included several legal actions and curb market abuse. Since 2016, CySEC has sought to take a more aggressive stance against illicit behavior, while also strengthening its handling of investor complaints against entities. CySEC is currently chaired by Demetra Kalogerou, who has held the role since 2011.The CySEC is administered by a seven-member Board, which consist of the Chairman and Vice-Chairman, each of whom provide their services on a full and exclusive employment basis, and five additional non-executive members.All individuals on CySEC’s Board are appointed by the Council of Ministers following a proposal of the Minister of Finance. Their service reflects a five-year term. The Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) is a financial regulatory authority of Cyprus. CySEC is one of the key watchdog authorities for brokerages in Europe, whose financial regulations and operations comply with the European MiFID financial harmonization law.Founded in 2001, CySEC is instrumental in providing licensing and registration for forex brokers and previously binary options providers.CySEC is responsible for a variety of different functions, which includes the supervision and control of the Cyprus Stock Exchange as well as transactions executed in the Stock Exchange, its listed companies, brokers and brokerage firms.Furthermore, the regulator also supervises and monitors Licensed Investment Services Companies, Collective Investment funds, investment consultants. and mutual fund management companies.CySEC’s Role in Combatting Market AbuseOne of CySEC’s most important functions is the granting of operation licenses to investment firms, including investment consultants, brokerage firms and brokers. This includes provisions for Cyprus Investment Firms (CIF), who provide and perform investment services and activities either within Cyprus or abroad on a professional basis on certain financial instruments.Finally, CySEC oversees the imposition of administrative sanctions and disciplinary penalties to brokers, brokerage firms, and investment consultants, among others. The group has been a key force in policing the forex and binary options space, which has included several legal actions and curb market abuse. Since 2016, CySEC has sought to take a more aggressive stance against illicit behavior, while also strengthening its handling of investor complaints against entities. CySEC is currently chaired by Demetra Kalogerou, who has held the role since 2011.The CySEC is administered by a seven-member Board, which consist of the Chairman and Vice-Chairman, each of whom provide their services on a full and exclusive employment basis, and five additional non-executive members.All individuals on CySEC’s Board are appointed by the Council of Ministers following a proposal of the Minister of Finance. Their service reflects a five-year term. Read this Term);
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