The prediction markets, or financial markets created specifically to trade contracts or securities whose payoff depends on the outcome of future events, are on the rise. Robinhood has announced that the company has crossed 4 billion contracts that have been traded all-time.
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According to a comment by the CEO, Vlad Tenev, on X, the company registered more than $2 billion in the third quarter alone.
“Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all-time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone. And we’re just getting started,” Tenev announced on X.
Competition Intensifies in Prediction Markets
Elsewhere, recent reports showed that Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket to become the leading platform in prediction market and event-based contract trading, capturing nearly two-thirds of the sector’s volume as regulated platforms gain ground over offshore competitors.
The surge reflects growing adoption of U.S.-regulated platforms and changing trading behaviors in the market.
According to Dune Analytics data, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total prediction market volume from September 11–17, processing over $500 million in weekly trading while maintaining an average open interest of $189 million.
Keep reading: Kalshi Captures 60% Share, Ending Polymarket's Prediction Market Dominance
Polymarket, by comparison, generated $430 million in volume with average open interest of $164 million, suggesting slower turnover and “sticker positions” among its traders.
Kalshi’s lead has continued to widen in recent days, reaching 65% of total market share. This marks a dramatic shift from December 2024, when Polymarket still controlled 95% of the prediction market, underscoring the rapid growth of regulated alternatives.
“Event contracts have generated high demand because they provide a maximally direct way to get exposure to events that affect businesses, people, and the economy, and they provide the most accurate signal on what the likelihood of future events is,” said Jack Such from Kalshi, responsible for Business & Media Development.
