Trader reactions will tell us if the bulls are in control or if the bears are taking over.
This guest article was written by James Hyerczyk, financial analyst at FX Empire.
July crude oil prices could feel pressure this week if traders return to following the traditional fundamentals. Although legitimate concerns over supply outages underpinned prices last week, the main concern for traders should be the huge global supply and the strengthening U.S. dollar.
Once the speculators are chased out of the market because of improving conditions in Nigeria, traders will be forced to deal with the growing supply and the possibility of slower demand. This should lead to the start of a near-term correction.
The dollar rallied this week to its highest level since March 29 as growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise rates next month prompted money managers and fund investors to cash out of long positions.
After reaching its highest level for the year, crude oil tumbled following the release of the Fed’s April policy meeting minutes that fed expectations of a June rate hike. On Thursday, New York Fed President William Dudley said that the central bank was on track for a June or July rate hike.
Sellers came in on the news because of uncertainty, which tends to encourage investors to book profits until the dust settles. At this time, the fear is that the stronger dollar will curtail demand from foreign traders because crude oil is a dollar-denominated commodity.
If the dollar continues to rise then crude oil prices will have to be adjusted to meet this change in the fundamentals. This could lead to the formation of a short-term top and a meaningful correction, but not a necessarily a change in trend. Traders should start to prepare for a change in the fundamentals especially since price and time suggest that the market is in a good position to top out.
Technically, the main trend is up according to the weekly chart. The market is no danger of changing the main trend to down, but we could see a loss in upside momentum if longs decide to take profits or if aggressive sellers decide to refresh short positions.
The main range is $64.00 to $31.61. Its retracement zone is $47.79 to $51.63. This zone essentially stopped the rally last week at $49.56. This is normal behavior because long traders typically take profits inside retracement zones.
Based on Friday’s close at $48.41, the direction of the market this week will likely be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $47.79.
A sustained move under $47.79 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to an acceleration to the downside because the next support target doesn’t come in until $44.50.
The new short-term range is $37.50 to $49.56. Its retracement zone at $43.53 to $42.11 is the primary downside target, should there be a normal 50% - 61.8% correction.
A sustained move over $47.79 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge a major long-term uptrending angle at $49.61.
Overtaking $49.61 will indicate that stronger buyers have returned. They will have their sights set on targets at $51.50 and $51.63.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at $47.79 all week. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the bulls are in control or if the bears are taking over.
This guest article was written by James Hyerczyk, financial analyst at FX Empire.
July crude oil prices could feel pressure this week if traders return to following the traditional fundamentals. Although legitimate concerns over supply outages underpinned prices last week, the main concern for traders should be the huge global supply and the strengthening U.S. dollar.
Once the speculators are chased out of the market because of improving conditions in Nigeria, traders will be forced to deal with the growing supply and the possibility of slower demand. This should lead to the start of a near-term correction.
The dollar rallied this week to its highest level since March 29 as growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise rates next month prompted money managers and fund investors to cash out of long positions.
After reaching its highest level for the year, crude oil tumbled following the release of the Fed’s April policy meeting minutes that fed expectations of a June rate hike. On Thursday, New York Fed President William Dudley said that the central bank was on track for a June or July rate hike.
Sellers came in on the news because of uncertainty, which tends to encourage investors to book profits until the dust settles. At this time, the fear is that the stronger dollar will curtail demand from foreign traders because crude oil is a dollar-denominated commodity.
If the dollar continues to rise then crude oil prices will have to be adjusted to meet this change in the fundamentals. This could lead to the formation of a short-term top and a meaningful correction, but not a necessarily a change in trend. Traders should start to prepare for a change in the fundamentals especially since price and time suggest that the market is in a good position to top out.
Technically, the main trend is up according to the weekly chart. The market is no danger of changing the main trend to down, but we could see a loss in upside momentum if longs decide to take profits or if aggressive sellers decide to refresh short positions.
The main range is $64.00 to $31.61. Its retracement zone is $47.79 to $51.63. This zone essentially stopped the rally last week at $49.56. This is normal behavior because long traders typically take profits inside retracement zones.
Based on Friday’s close at $48.41, the direction of the market this week will likely be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at $47.79.
A sustained move under $47.79 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to an acceleration to the downside because the next support target doesn’t come in until $44.50.
The new short-term range is $37.50 to $49.56. Its retracement zone at $43.53 to $42.11 is the primary downside target, should there be a normal 50% - 61.8% correction.
A sustained move over $47.79 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge a major long-term uptrending angle at $49.61.
Overtaking $49.61 will indicate that stronger buyers have returned. They will have their sights set on targets at $51.50 and $51.63.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at $47.79 all week. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the bulls are in control or if the bears are taking over.
James A. Hyerczyk is a financial analyst for FX Empire, a leading financial portal. James has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann. James A. Hyerczyk is a senior analyst at FX Empire. He has worked as a fundamental and technical financial market analyst since 1982. His technical work features the pattern, price and time analysis techniques of W.D. Gann.
Devexperts Checks Off Type 2 SOC 2 Audit for Enhanced Data Security
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
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#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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