With all eyes focused on the dollar and no economic releases of note until retail sales on Thursday, in what direction will Wednesday's UK numbers release take us?
Against the dollar last week, the pound suffered its worst week since 2010 falling 2.6 % reaching a low of 1.5027. We have been looking for a base to be made in this latest sell off but yesterday the pound climbed to fresh highs against the euro, so why could we still see a new low in the GBP/USD?
This difference between euro and USD performance shows us two things: firstly, that the GBP is being driven more by US fundamentals and data than the UKs and secondly, even though we are expecting a rate rise from the Bank of England later this year how, how soon will they raise after the Fed? With Yellen stating last month that the word 'patience' would remain and that decisions would depend on the data, Friday's better than expected Non-Farm payrolls has people expecting the word to be removed in next weekβs FOMC meeting.
If the Fed were to remove the word patience, the odds of a rate rise before June would increase and put extra pressure on the pound. With the upcoming election in May, we wonβt see any rate rise in the UK until later in the year, which will take us to much lower levels than we are now.
We are awaiting tomorrow's Industrial Production and Manufacturing survey, where we are looking for a rise in both. However, with all eyes focused on the dollar the pound will continue it gains against the euro. Against the dollar its losses will be determined by the extent of the US rate expectations following Thursday and Friday's US releases.
The next few days will be important as we should stay above the 1.4950 and look for a turn back up to complete the larger wave C over the coming weeks. With the 4 hourly MACD moving crossing and the RSI moving out of oversold, any sell off should be short-lived. As mentioned, the general election and the upcoming US rate rise will put an end to the wave C correction possibly up to 1.5800 or 1.6200.
Until then though, we will look for a bottom to form in this GBP/USD which may appear a little sooner than the market thinks.
Against the dollar last week, the pound suffered its worst week since 2010 falling 2.6 % reaching a low of 1.5027. We have been looking for a base to be made in this latest sell off but yesterday the pound climbed to fresh highs against the euro, so why could we still see a new low in the GBP/USD?
This difference between euro and USD performance shows us two things: firstly, that the GBP is being driven more by US fundamentals and data than the UKs and secondly, even though we are expecting a rate rise from the Bank of England later this year how, how soon will they raise after the Fed? With Yellen stating last month that the word 'patience' would remain and that decisions would depend on the data, Friday's better than expected Non-Farm payrolls has people expecting the word to be removed in next weekβs FOMC meeting.
If the Fed were to remove the word patience, the odds of a rate rise before June would increase and put extra pressure on the pound. With the upcoming election in May, we wonβt see any rate rise in the UK until later in the year, which will take us to much lower levels than we are now.
We are awaiting tomorrow's Industrial Production and Manufacturing survey, where we are looking for a rise in both. However, with all eyes focused on the dollar the pound will continue it gains against the euro. Against the dollar its losses will be determined by the extent of the US rate expectations following Thursday and Friday's US releases.
The next few days will be important as we should stay above the 1.4950 and look for a turn back up to complete the larger wave C over the coming weeks. With the 4 hourly MACD moving crossing and the RSI moving out of oversold, any sell off should be short-lived. As mentioned, the general election and the upcoming US rate rise will put an end to the wave C correction possibly up to 1.5800 or 1.6200.
Until then though, we will look for a bottom to form in this GBP/USD which may appear a little sooner than the market thinks.
This article is written by Matthew Clark who is the owner of
Global Forex Pros.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Matthew has been a trader for more than 20 years running FX desks at major banks and retail brokers. He recently started Global Forex Pros as a service for brokers to offer their clients, teaching them to trade in real time as professional traders learn at banks and institutions, giving the retail trader the confidence to trade and increasing volumes for the broker. Matthew has been a trader for more than 20 years running FX desks at major banks and retail brokers. He recently started Global Forex Pros as a service for brokers to offer their clients, teaching them to trade in real-time as professional traders learn at banks and institutions, giving the retail trader the confidence to trade and increasing volumes for the broker.
Cheetah Fund Investors Lose $9 Million in Alleged Fraudulent Scheme
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now π https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africaβs premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now π https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africaβs premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now π https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
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Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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