This article is written by Ron De Luca who is a senior risk analyst at Mercer Capital Ltd., a NZ regulated forex brokerage.
We hear a lot of news and chatter about whether there will be a GREXIT and how this will affect the Eurozone. In my opinion, the EU is already a dying horse, and it’s simply a matter of time before member countries begin charting their exits.
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Greece happens to be the canary in the coal mine. All of the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) are in terrible financial shape, and it’s only a matter of time before they will object to the bailout terms set by the IMF and the Eurozone.
The younger generation that is now old enough to work will not understand why they have to suffer austerity, bailout payback and lack of jobs. At one point, over 60% of the youth in Greece were unemployed. Can we really blame them for electing the Syriza party with their leftist, anti-austerity and anti-bailout views? Of course they will question if it is necessary to be part of the EU.
With the QE (quantitative easing) announcement from the EU, the Eurozone is gambling that they can revive the economy by pumping money into it. This seems to have worked to a degree in the US (at least temporarily). However, the PIIGS countries will continue to pull down the rest of the EU. It’s only a matter of time before there’s an exit from the EU by one of the PIIGS countries.
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