Looking Ahead: Barrage of Chinese Data and Market Uncertainty Clouds Data Calendar
by
George Tchetvertakov
Looking ahead, Forex Magnates picks out the most market sensitive events that are scheduled on next week's data calendar.
China is in prime focus this coming week as a barrage of data is likely to augment several market themes and influence all asset classes.
Trade Balance figures released earlier today indicate a surplus of $45.4 billion ($41.6 billion). More weight in favour of the USD against CNY at market open on Monday.
Monday
Chinese CPI (Monday 02:30 GMT)
In terms of trade and speculative attention, the most important data point for China is likely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is a vital data point as it will likely give speculators a cue as to which side of the inflation fence the PBoC is sitting on. A low figure below 1.3% would encourage further easing measures. More likely, a higher than expected reading adds further pressure on the PBoC to reign in rampant commodities and food price rises across China.
Europe, Japan and even New Zealand have all taken measures to try to and boost their inflation figures (with varying success), and China is no exception with lending to major banks growing steadily. Consensus market estimates suggest a repeat of last month’s 1.6% YoY increase - failure to reach that level could mean the AUD and NZD will suffer.
Tuesday
Note: Tuesday is a US, French and Canadian Bank Holiday.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report (Monday 08:05 GMT)
The RBNZ took an expectedly dovish turn last month but the NZD still suffered. Despite proclamations that the currency is overvalued, its decline is a boon for Kiwi producers and exporters. Along with the Financial Stability Report, Governor Graeme Wheeler will be giving a speech to elaborate. The report may not provide much new insight since the RBNZ meeting wasn’t that long ago, but could clarify the specifics as to why hawkish policy is being dropped.
Wednesday
Eurozone Industrial Production (Wednesday 10:00 GMT)
This past week, there has been supposed discord between the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, and his fellow committee members (regarding QE). The 'supposed' discord was nowhere to be seen when Mr. Draghi said the ECB was unanimous in its decision to “soon start to purchase asset-backed securities." The euro fell in all pairs, especially against the tapered USD. Anaemic industrial production figures at this stage will be yet more cuts to the thousands already received by the single currency.
Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney's Speech (Wednesday 12:30 GMT)
The previous inflation report was defined by Mark Carney's reigning in of the sterling stallion by declaring, "Monetary Policy Committee has no preset course." The comment signalled to investors to hold back on their assumptions of a straight line higher in interest rates. On Wednesday, a 'wait-and-see' tone is likely to predominate, which doesn't help GBP pairs.
Thursday
Chinese Industrial Production, Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Chinese Retail Sales (Thursday, 06:30 GMT)
Market consensus suggests a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 although the previous two data points missed their expectations. The EUR could be facing a zero or negative GDP figure which would only create more panic among shaky EUR longs and add fresh impetus to momentum growing EUR shorts.
US Retail Sales (Friday, 13:30 GMT)
Despite the Fed's macro optimism in the US economy and the foreseeable possibility of raising interest rates, that feeling of goodwill has not overlapped into the retail sector in the US. Retail sales figures have been a black patch on the recovery story - missing 5 of the past 6 estimates. A positive recoil would add further strength to the USD but another lacklustre figure could deflate the US dollar's recent upturn.
The retail sector and consumer demand in general is estimated to represent 30% of the US economy and is often cited as the growth engine of the US. If so, retail sales figures will have to start outpacing their expectations for the Fed's presumed growth story to remain consistent.
Saturday
G20 Meeting
Brisbane will be the epicentre of global politics when the world’s most powerful leaders and their entourages converge on the city. A range of announcements and developments are most likely, regarding foreign Exchange , banking, trade, commerce and international finance.
China is in prime focus this coming week as a barrage of data is likely to augment several market themes and influence all asset classes.
Trade Balance figures released earlier today indicate a surplus of $45.4 billion ($41.6 billion). More weight in favour of the USD against CNY at market open on Monday.
Monday
Chinese CPI (Monday 02:30 GMT)
In terms of trade and speculative attention, the most important data point for China is likely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is a vital data point as it will likely give speculators a cue as to which side of the inflation fence the PBoC is sitting on. A low figure below 1.3% would encourage further easing measures. More likely, a higher than expected reading adds further pressure on the PBoC to reign in rampant commodities and food price rises across China.
Europe, Japan and even New Zealand have all taken measures to try to and boost their inflation figures (with varying success), and China is no exception with lending to major banks growing steadily. Consensus market estimates suggest a repeat of last month’s 1.6% YoY increase - failure to reach that level could mean the AUD and NZD will suffer.
Tuesday
Note: Tuesday is a US, French and Canadian Bank Holiday.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report (Monday 08:05 GMT)
The RBNZ took an expectedly dovish turn last month but the NZD still suffered. Despite proclamations that the currency is overvalued, its decline is a boon for Kiwi producers and exporters. Along with the Financial Stability Report, Governor Graeme Wheeler will be giving a speech to elaborate. The report may not provide much new insight since the RBNZ meeting wasn’t that long ago, but could clarify the specifics as to why hawkish policy is being dropped.
Wednesday
Eurozone Industrial Production (Wednesday 10:00 GMT)
This past week, there has been supposed discord between the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, and his fellow committee members (regarding QE). The 'supposed' discord was nowhere to be seen when Mr. Draghi said the ECB was unanimous in its decision to “soon start to purchase asset-backed securities." The euro fell in all pairs, especially against the tapered USD. Anaemic industrial production figures at this stage will be yet more cuts to the thousands already received by the single currency.
Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney's Speech (Wednesday 12:30 GMT)
The previous inflation report was defined by Mark Carney's reigning in of the sterling stallion by declaring, "Monetary Policy Committee has no preset course." The comment signalled to investors to hold back on their assumptions of a straight line higher in interest rates. On Wednesday, a 'wait-and-see' tone is likely to predominate, which doesn't help GBP pairs.
Thursday
Chinese Industrial Production, Chinese Fixed Asset Investment, Chinese Retail Sales (Thursday, 06:30 GMT)
Market consensus suggests a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3 although the previous two data points missed their expectations. The EUR could be facing a zero or negative GDP figure which would only create more panic among shaky EUR longs and add fresh impetus to momentum growing EUR shorts.
US Retail Sales (Friday, 13:30 GMT)
Despite the Fed's macro optimism in the US economy and the foreseeable possibility of raising interest rates, that feeling of goodwill has not overlapped into the retail sector in the US. Retail sales figures have been a black patch on the recovery story - missing 5 of the past 6 estimates. A positive recoil would add further strength to the USD but another lacklustre figure could deflate the US dollar's recent upturn.
The retail sector and consumer demand in general is estimated to represent 30% of the US economy and is often cited as the growth engine of the US. If so, retail sales figures will have to start outpacing their expectations for the Fed's presumed growth story to remain consistent.
Saturday
G20 Meeting
Brisbane will be the epicentre of global politics when the world’s most powerful leaders and their entourages converge on the city. A range of announcements and developments are most likely, regarding foreign Exchange , banking, trade, commerce and international finance.
Cheetah Fund Investors Lose $9 Million in Alleged Fraudulent Scheme
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
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📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
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📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
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20-22 MAY 2024
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
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Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
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