Analysis

Bitcoin Drops below $47K: Is BTC in a Bear Market?

Bitcoin's rally seems to have made a sharp U-turn. Is this a short-lived correction or a longer-term trend?

The market correction that many crypto analysts have been predicting for weeks seems to have finally arrived.

Indeed, crypto markets are seeing red across the board: Bitcoin (BTC) was down 15.2 percent at press time, sitting at 46,779.18. Less than one hour before, BTC had fallen to as low as $46,931.40. Ether (ETH) had fallen a whopping 19.57 percent at press time, sitting at $1,464.38. Even Binance Coin (BNB), which has been posting high gains throughout the past week, had fallen 20.8 percent to $208.00.

Binance’s Chief Executive Changpeng Zhao was quick to point out that while the drop may have been significant, the levels that markets have fallen to were “new all-time highs” just last week. “#bitcoin crashed, back to its ATH 5 days ago, at $50,000,” he wrote on Twitter.

Additionally, Altcoin and DeFi markets have been affected by the drop: XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Chainlink (LINK), Stellar Lumens (XLM), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Uniswap (UNI) have seen drops of more than 20 percent (or even 30 percent) over the last 24 hour period.

Still, while the drops are significant, some analysts believe that they will be short-lived. Pseudonymous trader and analyst, @Rekt_Capital wrote on Twitter that: “one day, a #BTC Bear Market will come. But, today is not that day.”

Of course, what goes up must come down, and crypto markets have been performing incredibly for weeks. What finally triggered the sell-off? How low will crypto markets go? And, what does this mean for the long term?

Worst-Case Scenario? Bitcoin Could Drop as Low as $30,000

Paolo Ardoino, Chief Technical Officer at cryptocurrency exchange, Bitfinex, explained that the price drops are not necessarily signs of fundamental problems within the cryptocurrency market space. “Today’s drop [seems] to be a correction in BTC,” he said.

How low will Bitcoin go? Of course, it is impossible to predict the future. However, Michaël van de Poppe, a full-time Trader from the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, tweeted on Monday morning that: “I think we’re close now.”

“Resistance zone at $48,500 and $51,000,” he wrote.

But, further drops could be in the cards for BTC. David Lifchitz, Chief Information Officer at quantitative trading firm, ExoAlpha, told CoinDesk that: “$50,000 looks like the first stop for a mild pullback, but a second leg down could take it down to $40,000, while the $30,000 zone looks like the ultimate bottom should things turn ugly in the short term.”

Bitcoin Market Analyst, Willy Woo wrote on Sunday that: “This is the $1T consolidation level. Let’s just enjoy the view and not freak out, this moment will be fleeting.”

“We Had Clear Signs of over-Leverage and Exuberance in the System.”

While it is unclear how deep the drop will be, many analysts agree that the drop was not unexpected. In a statement shared with Finance Magnates, Delta Exchange Chief Executive, Pankaj Balani told Finance Magnates that there have been signs that the market was overbought for weeks.

“Throughout the last week, we have seen traders chasing laggards,” Balani told Finance Magnates, adding that Bitcoin and Ether weren’t the only coins affected by this upward trend. “There was a sharp pick-up in altcoin trading activity as markets looked for upsides outside of Bitcoin and Ether.”

Indeed, “we had clear signs of over-leverage and exuberance in the system,” Balani told Finance Magnates.

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Pankaj Balani, Chief Executive of cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform, Delta Exchange

Did Elon Musk Cause the Bitcoin Drop?

What may have triggered prices to fall? A number of analysts believe that it may have something to do with Mr Elon Musk.

“Commentary from Elon Musk seems to have acted as the straw that broke the camel’s back and triggered the due correction,” Balani said.

Indeed, on Saturday, Musk tweeted that: “BTC & ETH do seem high lol” in response to a conversation thread between himself and Bitcoin bear Peter Schiff. Musk had previously said that Bitcoin was a “less dumb” alternative to fiat money.

Janet Yellen, Bill Gates Express Doubt about Bitcoin’s Future

The tweet may not be so significant in the grand scheme of things, but Musk’s recent fixation on DogeCoin combined with Tesla’s $1.5 billion purchase of Bitcoin had the crypto world riding on every one of his words: after Musk repeatedly expressed interest in DogeCoin, DOGE had an eye-popping rally. Tesla’s BTC investment is largely credited as the event that sent Bitcoin over $50,000 for the first time.

(And, this is not the first time that Musk’s Tweets have significantly impacted the price of an asset in a negative way, either. In May of 2020, Musk tweeted that: “Tesla stock price is too high imo,” a move that immediately sent Tesla’s stock price ($TSLA) hurtling toward the ground.

Musk was not the only one to poke at Bitcoin this week. Bloomberg pointed out that negative comments about BTC also came from the United States Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen and Microsoft Co-founder, Bill Gates.

Yellen, who has criticized Bitcoin in the past, recently said that Bitcoin is a very ‘inefficient’ way of conducting transactions. Gates spoke about how BTC investors can easily be swept up in manias and said that he is “not bullish on Bitcoin.”

Whether or not Musk, Yellen, or Gates had anything to do with Bitcoin’s recent drops, BTC investors seem to have decided that now is the right moment to move out of the market.

Balani explained that on Delta Exchange “we have seen profit-taking on Bitcoin longs that came in around the $30K-$35K zone.”

“Institutions Are Buying All Your #Bitcoin Right Now.”

While some investors may be profit-taking, crypto bulls are warning that other investors may be buying up their holdings for cheap. “Institutions are buying all your #bitcoin right now,” Tweeted Dennis Parker, an FX analyst who also works in Bitcoin research and development.

Still, there could be more volatility to come: Balani believes that while “some leverage has been cleared,” there will still be some fluctuations before it is possibile that Bitcoin and Ether will regain their previous highs. “The volatility should persist for a few sessions followed by a consolidation in BTC and ETH prices before the next move up,” he said.

”Volatility Isn’t New and Is to Be Expected in Such a Young Market.”

Still, Bitcoin ‘skeptics’ are convinced that Bitcoin’s current volatility is a sign of a deeper problem within the market itself, a problem that will not be fixed through the passage of time.

Nader Naeimi, Head of Dynamic Markets at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney, told Bloomberg that Bitcoin is “a pure[ly] speculative asset.”

However, a number of crypto industry veterans seem to believe that the drops, while they are significant, are simply par for the crypto course.

Bitfinex’s Ardoino said that today’s sea of red is no reason to panic, in fact, it is nothing out of the ordinary.

“For many of the battle-tested exchanges that have weathered the market fluctuations, volatility isn’t new and is to be expected in such a young market,” he said. “For many in the industry, development and deployment is a priority. Price movements are more of a sideshow.”

Paolo Ardoino of Bitfinex
Bitfinex CTO Paolo Ardoino

As such, “we may be seeing some price fluctuations that can be expected in a nascent space,” Ardoino continued, adding that: “today’s price movement may galvanize bitcoin’s many critics, including those who recently dismissed the leading cryptocurrency as an economic sideshow. Such criticism misses the point and the profound impact it is starting to have.”

“We Believe the Ongoing Demand for Bitcoin from Corporates and Investors Has Helped Support Prices despite USD Strength.”

Finance Magnates previously reported that in spite of the drops, Bitcoin’s cash inflows this month have been sizeable. In a report published by CoinShares on Monday, Investment Strategist, James Butterfill pointed out that Bitcoin has seen record-breaking amounts of cash inflows in spite of “minor profit-taking.”

“Digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling US$492m last week. Although, breaching both the US$50k Bitcoin price and a market capitalisation of US$1 trillion has led to minor profit-taking, as witnessed before when significant psychological milestones had been reached,” he wrote.

And, while some believe that Bitcoin is nothing more than a speculative asset, Butterfill pointed out that Bitcoin is gaining strength from institutional demand, even as its status as a ‘store-of-value’ or ‘hedge against inflation’ is ‘tested’.

Butterfill pointed out that this relationship is still being explored “this year, the inverse relationship between the US Dollar (USD) and Bitcoin has been tested, as recent better than expected US economic data has led to more USD resilience,” he said. “We believe the ongoing demand for Bitcoin from corporates and investors has helped support prices despite USD strength.”

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