S&P 500 – Is It Deja Vu All Over Again?

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Talking Points

• S&P 500 vulnerable this week?
• Key resistance at 2055 and 2066

S&P 500 – Is It Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Gann placed heavy timing emphasis on the Vernal Equinox (this year it was yesterday) and believed it was one of the most important times of the year. In the Square of Nine it is denoted with ‘0’ degrees and is the “beginning of the year” from a Gann/geometric perspective. He theorized changes in trend occur more often around this date and if one looks through market history it is indeed littered with important turns in late March. Is it a coincidence? Maybe, but the fact so many important reversals have occurred around this time period suggests that there is a natural cyclicality here - if only due to the interrelationship of these past significant highs and lows. In the S&P 500, there is actually a clear negative seasonality over second half of the month. In my experience, it is foolish to ignore this potential window and I will be closely watching the index and how it responds at resistance around 2050 and 2066 given the sharp run over the past few weeks.

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What makes the S&P 500 particularly interesting this week is the potential price, time & percentage symmetry. The rally in the SPX500 (FXCM CFD) from the secondary low in February lasted 25 days and rallied about 246 points and 13%. Today the index is 26 days (+/- a day) off the secondary low made in February and earlier this morning touched an intraday high of 2054, which is 247 points and about 13% from that low. A close under 2035 would signal that at least a minor top is in place, but only under 2005 indicates a more important reversal is underway. Traction over 2055 would undermine the potential negative symmetry, but only a clear break of 2066 confirms a more important advance is materializing.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

original source

By: Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist