Silver Prices Digest Gains

Talking Prices

• Silver prices are consolidating below the February 12 high of $15.83, and may head higher on a break to the $15.83 high or after a pullback, which would offer a better risk/reward ratio for bullish traders.
• For price to turn bearish, it will most likely need to break the March 3 low of $14.87.
• Silver slid on the softer than expected Chinese Import/Export data, but has since then rebounded.
• There are no key macro reports on tap today.

Silver prices are consolidating below the February 12 high of $15.83 and it’s fair to expect traders not to add to their bullish exposure until price trades to the $15.09 – $15.36 range, where the risk/reward ratio is better.

The alternative scenario is a breach to the February 12 high of $15.83, whereby resistance will leave the February high of $15.97 exposed, followed by the October 15, 2015 high of $16.23.

The bullish trend is also supported by gold prices trending higher and this is now suggesting that silver should be trading at $15.99, as long as gold trades at or above $1,275 per ounce. We have estimated this target with linear regression analysis using daily gold prices from the last six months as the sole explanatory variable.

For price to turn bearish, it will most likely need to break the March 3 low of $14.87.

Data published overnight showed Chinese Exports in U.S. Dollars declining by 25.4% YoY vs. the estimated 14.5% (Bloomberg poll), while Imports declined by 13.8% YoY vs. an expected 12%. Silver prices declined on the news, but have since recovered, which seems fair given that silver has a safe haven appeal to investors. There are no key macro reports on tap today.

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold

Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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By: Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst