Gold Price Forecast: How Long Is the Dollar In the Driver Seat?
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DailyFX News
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Talking Points:
Gold Technical Strategy: Watching for a Break Above 1,270 To Enter Long
The 200-DMA In USDollar Could Be a Key Driver for XAUUSD in Q2
Weekly Ichimoku Cloud Favors a Behavior Change is Afoot
Gold bears often look smart until they do not. The move higher from the December, when the Federal Reserve decided to hike interest rates for the first time since 2006, has been breathtaking. Gold has moved higher by 23%, and another 10 to 20% rally could happen should the US dollar fail to recover and move back above the 200-day moving average again. The recent move higher in gold preceded other commodity markets like crude oil and silver moving higher.
The chart below shows that a corrective move lower was due, but also may not last for long. Not only is Gold now in a technical Bull market but fear from an unstable global macro environment and at the same time, signs of inflation in major economies are starting to perk up. Both fear and inflation are natural drivers of gold bulls.
This environment means not only is the chart showing signs of life that favor further upside, but the fundamental forecast also makes it hard to discount this precious metal. Negative interest rates, at the confession of former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, is an admitted policy failure of central banking. All of this make it hard not to foresee a move above $1300/oz. shortly, if not $1433/oz, the summer 2013 high, later this year.
A Break Above the Lower-High at 1,270 Opens Up A Strong Move Higher
Key Support Levels from Here
The chart above utilizes a weekly Ichimoku cloud as resistance. What is interesting is whether the each mocha cloud can act as support within this retracement. The aggressive move through the cloud on the way higher argues that a behavioral shift in capital markets is underway, and a bounce off the cloud as support into new multiyear highs would favor that argument. Currently, the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud sits at the same level as the October high of $1191.42 per ounce.
Another key technical event is that $1190 per ounce is the 38.2/61.8 divide of the June 2013 to December 2015 range. Our breaking out of a bullish falling wedge pattern, all of these events favor further upside. The upside I specifically will be looking at is $1,433/oz, the August 2013 high. A validating Intermarket analysis move would be a breakdown longer-term in the US dollar though that is not necessarily required in certain risk off scenarios where Treasury yields plummet due to increased demand like the one they have since December.
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Talking Points:
Gold Technical Strategy: Watching for a Break Above 1,270 To Enter Long
The 200-DMA In USDollar Could Be a Key Driver for XAUUSD in Q2
Weekly Ichimoku Cloud Favors a Behavior Change is Afoot
Gold bears often look smart until they do not. The move higher from the December, when the Federal Reserve decided to hike interest rates for the first time since 2006, has been breathtaking. Gold has moved higher by 23%, and another 10 to 20% rally could happen should the US dollar fail to recover and move back above the 200-day moving average again. The recent move higher in gold preceded other commodity markets like crude oil and silver moving higher.
The chart below shows that a corrective move lower was due, but also may not last for long. Not only is Gold now in a technical Bull market but fear from an unstable global macro environment and at the same time, signs of inflation in major economies are starting to perk up. Both fear and inflation are natural drivers of gold bulls.
This environment means not only is the chart showing signs of life that favor further upside, but the fundamental forecast also makes it hard to discount this precious metal. Negative interest rates, at the confession of former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, is an admitted policy failure of central banking. All of this make it hard not to foresee a move above $1300/oz. shortly, if not $1433/oz, the summer 2013 high, later this year.
A Break Above the Lower-High at 1,270 Opens Up A Strong Move Higher
Key Support Levels from Here
The chart above utilizes a weekly Ichimoku cloud as resistance. What is interesting is whether the each mocha cloud can act as support within this retracement. The aggressive move through the cloud on the way higher argues that a behavioral shift in capital markets is underway, and a bounce off the cloud as support into new multiyear highs would favor that argument. Currently, the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud sits at the same level as the October high of $1191.42 per ounce.
Another key technical event is that $1190 per ounce is the 38.2/61.8 divide of the June 2013 to December 2015 range. Our breaking out of a bullish falling wedge pattern, all of these events favor further upside. The upside I specifically will be looking at is $1,433/oz, the August 2013 high. A validating Intermarket analysis move would be a breakdown longer-term in the US dollar though that is not necessarily required in certain risk off scenarios where Treasury yields plummet due to increased demand like the one they have since December.
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
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Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
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The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
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