I write an exclusive weekly for our Private Client Group called Market Morsels. In it, I try to make sense of the weekly news cycle. One of the points I have made there over the past few weeks was that the markets were underpricing the risk of the Brexit referendum because of recency bias (due to the overhype of the Scottish referendum). I have likened it to Hurricane Sandy. I know it is a bit simplistic, but I believe the severity of the storm caught many people off guard and unprepared precisely because the prior year a storm was overhyped and ended up being very mild. Did the markets do the same thing with Brexit after Scotland?
What is the #1 mistake most FX traders make? Find out HERE.
My big fear heading into the Brexit referendum (because of my thinking that it was underpriced) was/is that there would be some sort of catalyst (as if we may have gotten yesterday) that would tip the scales. It is still too early to tell if it is a major turning point, but the fact of the matter is that odds have shifted. The latest ICM poll shows the leave campaign at 43% and the in campaign at 41%. A well-known Irish bookmaker tightened up the odds to 13/8 from 2/1 on Monday. Three-month implied vol (which covers the referendum) traded at over 20% this morning, the biggest one-day move in over 14 years. GBP/USD predictably has not fared well either. The near-term cyclical picture in GBP/USD and most European currencies for that matter is not the clearest. I have generally been trying to give the benefit of the doubt to the downside in Cable given the lack of positive behavioral change, but I really would need to see the 1.4000 region convincingly broken to help confirm the start of a broader downside resumption and the end of this consolidation phase.
Get DailyFX’s top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
I write an exclusive weekly for our Private Client Group called Market Morsels. In it, I try to make sense of the weekly news cycle. One of the points I have made there over the past few weeks was that the markets were underpricing the risk of the Brexit referendum because of recency bias (due to the overhype of the Scottish referendum). I have likened it to Hurricane Sandy. I know it is a bit simplistic, but I believe the severity of the storm caught many people off guard and unprepared precisely because the prior year a storm was overhyped and ended up being very mild. Did the markets do the same thing with Brexit after Scotland?
What is the #1 mistake most FX traders make? Find out HERE.
My big fear heading into the Brexit referendum (because of my thinking that it was underpriced) was/is that there would be some sort of catalyst (as if we may have gotten yesterday) that would tip the scales. It is still too early to tell if it is a major turning point, but the fact of the matter is that odds have shifted. The latest ICM poll shows the leave campaign at 43% and the in campaign at 41%. A well-known Irish bookmaker tightened up the odds to 13/8 from 2/1 on Monday. Three-month implied vol (which covers the referendum) traded at over 20% this morning, the biggest one-day move in over 14 years. GBP/USD predictably has not fared well either. The near-term cyclical picture in GBP/USD and most European currencies for that matter is not the clearest. I have generally been trying to give the benefit of the doubt to the downside in Cable given the lack of positive behavioral change, but I really would need to see the 1.4000 region convincingly broken to help confirm the start of a broader downside resumption and the end of this consolidation phase.
Get DailyFX’s top trading opportunities of 2016 HERE.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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