For the Saudis, the Oil Price Love-In Can Only Go So Far: Gadfly
by
Bloomberg News
Why is Saudi Arabia even prepared to discuss supply restraint?A second meeting has been pencilled in by the kingdom, Russia, Venezuela, Qatar...
Why is Saudi Arabia even prepared to discuss supply restraint?
A second meeting has been pencilled in by the kingdom, Russia, Venezuela, Qatar and an unspecified group of oil producers (OPEC and non-OPEC) to talk again about the proposed output freeze, according to Nigerian petroleum minister Emmanuel Kachikwu. But no-one should read this as a sudden outbreak of altruism in Riyadh.
Non-OPEC producers Mexico and Oman might hope to get an invitation to the meeting, and they've both joined in with supporting prices in the past. When the group does get together, though, one big market participant certainly won't be there: the U.S. shale industry.
The U.S. accounted for 80 percent of global supply growth between 2011 and 2014, according to BP. This surge, which showed no sign of ending when prices were above $100 a barrel, is what prompted Saudi Arabia to launch OPEC on its present course of trying to drive high-cost crude off the market.
The question is why are the Saudis now willing to engage in a process aimed at raising the price of oil when the policy they initiated seems to be bearing fruit? The latest weekly data from the U.S. Department of Energy shows the country's oil production fell year-on-year for the first time since the shale boom began. As my colleague Alex Nussbaum wrote last week, "U.S. oil drillers are finally beginning to buckle."
The answer, of course, is that the Saudis probably don't want the price to rise much above its current level, at least not yet. At the same time, they don't want to be seen as deaf to the pleas of fellow OPEC members who are much less able to withstand the price drop. Whatever its shortcomings, OPEC is still important to Saudi Arabia and the kingdom still sees value in at least a semblance of unity among the group's members.
But make no mistake, Saudi Arabia's oil strategy is based on self-interest. It sees a long-term strategic threat from the rapid growth of U.S. shale and other high-cost oil. Importantly, the current policy draws no distinction between producers of high-cost oil outside OPEC and those inside the group. When Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi says he wants to kill off high-cost supply, fellow OPEC members Venezuela, Nigeria and Angola are as much in his sights as U.S. shale oil or Canada's oil sands. Indeed, Venezuelan production has fallen far more than U.S. output since November 2014.
So the Saudis will meet with other producers to talk about a production freeze that will not take any oil off the market, because nobody was planning to raise output anyway. Just don't expect them to pursue this new initiative too vigorously. They have already ruled out an output cut.
The $8 a barrel rise in crude prices since just before the output freeze was first discussed is worth about $2 billion per month to Saudi Arabia. But the last thing the kingdom wants is to stimulate a rebound in U.S. shale oil production, or Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil.
Julian Lee is a Bloomberg First Word oil strategist. His opinions are his own and aren't intended as investment advice.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story: Julian Lee in London at jlee1627@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.net.
Why is Saudi Arabia even prepared to discuss supply restraint?
A second meeting has been pencilled in by the kingdom, Russia, Venezuela, Qatar and an unspecified group of oil producers (OPEC and non-OPEC) to talk again about the proposed output freeze, according to Nigerian petroleum minister Emmanuel Kachikwu. But no-one should read this as a sudden outbreak of altruism in Riyadh.
Non-OPEC producers Mexico and Oman might hope to get an invitation to the meeting, and they've both joined in with supporting prices in the past. When the group does get together, though, one big market participant certainly won't be there: the U.S. shale industry.
The U.S. accounted for 80 percent of global supply growth between 2011 and 2014, according to BP. This surge, which showed no sign of ending when prices were above $100 a barrel, is what prompted Saudi Arabia to launch OPEC on its present course of trying to drive high-cost crude off the market.
The question is why are the Saudis now willing to engage in a process aimed at raising the price of oil when the policy they initiated seems to be bearing fruit? The latest weekly data from the U.S. Department of Energy shows the country's oil production fell year-on-year for the first time since the shale boom began. As my colleague Alex Nussbaum wrote last week, "U.S. oil drillers are finally beginning to buckle."
The answer, of course, is that the Saudis probably don't want the price to rise much above its current level, at least not yet. At the same time, they don't want to be seen as deaf to the pleas of fellow OPEC members who are much less able to withstand the price drop. Whatever its shortcomings, OPEC is still important to Saudi Arabia and the kingdom still sees value in at least a semblance of unity among the group's members.
But make no mistake, Saudi Arabia's oil strategy is based on self-interest. It sees a long-term strategic threat from the rapid growth of U.S. shale and other high-cost oil. Importantly, the current policy draws no distinction between producers of high-cost oil outside OPEC and those inside the group. When Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi says he wants to kill off high-cost supply, fellow OPEC members Venezuela, Nigeria and Angola are as much in his sights as U.S. shale oil or Canada's oil sands. Indeed, Venezuelan production has fallen far more than U.S. output since November 2014.
So the Saudis will meet with other producers to talk about a production freeze that will not take any oil off the market, because nobody was planning to raise output anyway. Just don't expect them to pursue this new initiative too vigorously. They have already ruled out an output cut.
The $8 a barrel rise in crude prices since just before the output freeze was first discussed is worth about $2 billion per month to Saudi Arabia. But the last thing the kingdom wants is to stimulate a rebound in U.S. shale oil production, or Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil.
Julian Lee is a Bloomberg First Word oil strategist. His opinions are his own and aren't intended as investment advice.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To contact the author of this story: Julian Lee in London at jlee1627@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.net.
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FinanceMagnatesEvents
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/F_M_events
🎥 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fmevents_official
▶️ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceMagnates_official
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/financemagnates/
👍 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/financemagnates/
📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/financemagnates_official
🐦 X (Twitter): https://twitter.com/financemagnates/
📡 RSS Feed: https://www.financemagnates.com/feed/
▶️ Telegram: https://t.me/financemagnatesnews
Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage.
🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!🔔