Oil can reach $100; what does it mean for markets and inflation?
Monday,21/02/2022|17:43GMTby
FBS
How heavily will oil move the markets?
More and more analysts are sure Brent oil will surpass $100 a barrel. Some of them forecast that $125 and $150 levels will be reached over several months. As oil is one of the most (if not the most) traded commodities in the world, it can't help but impact inflation and financial markets. At least, people think so. So how heavily will oil move the markets, and what will the direction of the movement be? Let's find out!
The correlation of oil and stock market
An increase in oil prices usually lowers the expected economic growth rate and increases inflation expectations over shorter horizons. Decreasing economic growth prospects, in turn, reduces companies' earnings expectations, resulting in a dampening effect on stock prices. But that's in theory. So let's look at the correlation meter to find out the truth.
Here you can see S&P500 (US500) index (orange) compared with XBR/USD (UK Brent oil, blue). In addition, you can find a correlation meter at the bottom of the screen, a tool to measure the correlation between instruments and assets. It is evident that since the crash in March 2020, both US500 and XBR/USD have had a positive correlation. It is opposite to the market expectations of oil and stock price movement and shows that high oil prices don't always mean a slump in stocks.
The truth about oil
We searched the web and found out that researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland looked at movements in the price of oil and stock market prices and discovered that there is little correlation between oil prices and the stock market.
Also, it would be best if you separate correlation and causation. Oil does impact the US economy, but this impact is bidirectional. On the one hand, high oil prices create more jobs in the oil industry and increase investments in shale oil deposits. On the other hand, high oil prices also hit businesses and consumers with higher transportation and manufacturing costs. To be more specific, we can assume that change in oil prices causes money transfer from energy-consuming companies to oil production and vice versa. Oil doesn't drive stock prices because other price factors in the economy—such as wages, interest rates, industrial metals, plastic, and computer technology—can offset changes in energy costs.
In other words, the economy is too complex to expect one commodity to drive all business activity in a predictable way.
What to expect now?
Technically, oil is in a consolidation. A breakout of the $93.00 level will turn on the bullish scenario. However, considering the negative correlation with US500 at the present moment, the latter may decrease even more. The oil may move higher to the resistance of $91.00 per barrel in the short term.
XBR/USD H4 chart
Resistance: 91.00, 93.00, 95.00;
Support: 88.00, 86.00, 81.00
Disclaimer
This post is written and submitted by FBS Markets for informational purposes only. In no way shall it be interpreted or construed to create any warranties of any kind, including an offer to buy or sell any currencies or other instruments.
The views and ideas shared in this article are deemed reliable and based on the most up-to-date and trustworthy sources. However, the company does not take any responsibility for accuracy and completeness of the information, and the views expressed in the article may be subject to change without prior notice.
More and more analysts are sure Brent oil will surpass $100 a barrel. Some of them forecast that $125 and $150 levels will be reached over several months. As oil is one of the most (if not the most) traded commodities in the world, it can't help but impact inflation and financial markets. At least, people think so. So how heavily will oil move the markets, and what will the direction of the movement be? Let's find out!
The correlation of oil and stock market
An increase in oil prices usually lowers the expected economic growth rate and increases inflation expectations over shorter horizons. Decreasing economic growth prospects, in turn, reduces companies' earnings expectations, resulting in a dampening effect on stock prices. But that's in theory. So let's look at the correlation meter to find out the truth.
Here you can see S&P500 (US500) index (orange) compared with XBR/USD (UK Brent oil, blue). In addition, you can find a correlation meter at the bottom of the screen, a tool to measure the correlation between instruments and assets. It is evident that since the crash in March 2020, both US500 and XBR/USD have had a positive correlation. It is opposite to the market expectations of oil and stock price movement and shows that high oil prices don't always mean a slump in stocks.
The truth about oil
We searched the web and found out that researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland looked at movements in the price of oil and stock market prices and discovered that there is little correlation between oil prices and the stock market.
Also, it would be best if you separate correlation and causation. Oil does impact the US economy, but this impact is bidirectional. On the one hand, high oil prices create more jobs in the oil industry and increase investments in shale oil deposits. On the other hand, high oil prices also hit businesses and consumers with higher transportation and manufacturing costs. To be more specific, we can assume that change in oil prices causes money transfer from energy-consuming companies to oil production and vice versa. Oil doesn't drive stock prices because other price factors in the economy—such as wages, interest rates, industrial metals, plastic, and computer technology—can offset changes in energy costs.
In other words, the economy is too complex to expect one commodity to drive all business activity in a predictable way.
What to expect now?
Technically, oil is in a consolidation. A breakout of the $93.00 level will turn on the bullish scenario. However, considering the negative correlation with US500 at the present moment, the latter may decrease even more. The oil may move higher to the resistance of $91.00 per barrel in the short term.
XBR/USD H4 chart
Resistance: 91.00, 93.00, 95.00;
Support: 88.00, 86.00, 81.00
Disclaimer
This post is written and submitted by FBS Markets for informational purposes only. In no way shall it be interpreted or construed to create any warranties of any kind, including an offer to buy or sell any currencies or other instruments.
The views and ideas shared in this article are deemed reliable and based on the most up-to-date and trustworthy sources. However, the company does not take any responsibility for accuracy and completeness of the information, and the views expressed in the article may be subject to change without prior notice.
Beyond the Prompt: Solitics’ VP Product, Guy Shemer Exposes ‘Traditional’ AI Flaws and Reveals New Product: the AI Expert
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As brokers eye B2B business and compete with fintechs and crypto exchanges alike, marketers need to act wisely with often limited budgets. AI can offer scalable solutions, but only if used properly.
Join seasoned marketing executives and specialists as they discuss the main challenges they identify in financial services in 2026 and how they address them.
Attendees of this session will walk away with:
- A nuts-and-bolts account of acquisition costs across platforms and geos
- Analysis of today’s multi-layered audience segments and differences in behaviour
- First-hand account of how global brokers balance consistency and local flavour
- Notes from the field about intelligently using AI and automation in marketing
Speakers:
-Yam Yehoshua, Editor-In-Chief at Finance Magnates
-Federico Paderni, Managing Director for Growth Markets in Europe at X
-Jo Benton, Chief Marketing Officer, Consulting | Fractional CMO
-Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive
-Roberto Napolitano, CMO at Innovate Finance
-Tony Cross, Director at Monk Communications
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #FintechMarketing #AI #DigitalStrategy #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As brokers eye B2B business and compete with fintechs and crypto exchanges alike, marketers need to act wisely with often limited budgets. AI can offer scalable solutions, but only if used properly.
Join seasoned marketing executives and specialists as they discuss the main challenges they identify in financial services in 2026 and how they address them.
Attendees of this session will walk away with:
- A nuts-and-bolts account of acquisition costs across platforms and geos
- Analysis of today’s multi-layered audience segments and differences in behaviour
- First-hand account of how global brokers balance consistency and local flavour
- Notes from the field about intelligently using AI and automation in marketing
Speakers:
-Yam Yehoshua, Editor-In-Chief at Finance Magnates
-Federico Paderni, Managing Director for Growth Markets in Europe at X
-Jo Benton, Chief Marketing Officer, Consulting | Fractional CMO
-Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive
-Roberto Napolitano, CMO at Innovate Finance
-Tony Cross, Director at Monk Communications
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #FintechMarketing #AI #DigitalStrategy #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
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Attendees will hear:
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-Buy vs. build: What do hybrid models look like, and why are industry graveyards filled with failed ‘killer apps’?
-How AI is already changing execution, risk, and reporting—and what’s next?
-Which features, assets, and tools gain the most traction, and where brokers should look for tech-driven retention?
Speakers:
-Stephen Miles, Chief Revenue Officer at FYNXT
-John Morris, Co-Founder at FXBlue
-Matthew Smith, Group Chair & CEO at EC Markets
-Tom Higgins, Founder & CEO at Gold-i
-Gil Ben Hur, Founder at 5% Group
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #Trading #Fintech #FintechInnovation #TradingTechnology #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Much like their traders in the market, brokers must diversify to manage risk and stay resilient. But that can get costly, clunky, and lengthy.
This candid panel brings together builders across the trading infrastructure space to uncover the shifting dynamics behind tools, interfaces, and full-stack ambitions.
Attendees will hear:
-Why platform dependency has become one of the most overlooked risks in the trading business?
-Buy vs. build: What do hybrid models look like, and why are industry graveyards filled with failed ‘killer apps’?
-How AI is already changing execution, risk, and reporting—and what’s next?
-Which features, assets, and tools gain the most traction, and where brokers should look for tech-driven retention?
Speakers:
-Stephen Miles, Chief Revenue Officer at FYNXT
-John Morris, Co-Founder at FXBlue
-Matthew Smith, Group Chair & CEO at EC Markets
-Tom Higgins, Founder & CEO at Gold-i
-Gil Ben Hur, Founder at 5% Group
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #Trading #Fintech #FintechInnovation #TradingTechnology #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
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This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025.
Key Themes:
- Building trader communities through education and local expertise
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Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets
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-Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
When acquisition costs rise and AI generated reviews are exactly as useful as they sound, performing and fair partners can make or break brokers.
This session looks at how these players are shaping access, trust and user engagement, and what the most effective partnership models look like in 2025.
Key Themes:
- Building trader communities through education and local expertise
- Aligning broker incentives with long-term regional strategies
- Regional regulation and the realities of compliant acquisition
- What’s next for performance-driven partnerships in online trading
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Zander Van Der Merwe, Key Individual & Head of Sales at TD Markets
-Brunno Huertas, Regional Manager – Latin America at Tickmill
-Paul Chalmers, CEO at UK Trading Academy
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #BrokerGrowth #FintechPartnerships #RegionalMarkets
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
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Gerald Perez, CEO at Interactive Brokers UK
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As the arms race to bundle investing, personal finance, and wallets under super apps grows fiercer, brokers are caught between a rock and a hard place.
This session explores unexpected ways for industry players to collaborate as consumer habits evolve, competitors eye the traffic, and regulation becomes more nuanced.
Speakers:
-Laura McCracken,CEO | Advisory Board Member at Blackheath Advisors | The Payments Association
-Slobodan Manojlović,Vice President | Lead Software Engineer at JP Morgan Chase & Co.
-Jordan Sinclair, President at Robinhood UK
-Simon Pelletier, Head of Product at Yuh
Gerald Perez, CEO at Interactive Brokers UK
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #Innovation
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
Mind The Gap: Can Retail Investors Save the UK Stock Market?
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#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #RetailInvesting #UKFinance
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
As the dire state of listing and investment in the UK goes from a financial services problem to a national challenge, the retail investing industry is taken to task.
Join a host of executives and experts for a candid conversation about the future of millions of Brits, as seen from a financial services standpoint:
-Are they happy with the Leeds Reform, in principle and in practice?
-Is it the government’s job to affect the ‘saver’ mentality? Is it doing well?
-What can brokers and fintechs do to spur UK investment?
-How can the FCA balance greater flexibility with consumer protection?
Speakers:
-Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at investingLive
-Nicola Higgs, Partner at Latham & Watkins
-Dan Lane, Investment Content Lead at Robinhood UK
-Jack Crone, PR & Public Affairs Lead at IG
-David Belle, Founder at Fink Money
#fmls #fmls25 #fmevents #Brokers #FinanceLeadership #Trading #Fintech #RetailInvesting #UKFinance
Connect with us at:
🔗 LinkedIn: / financemagnates-events
👍 Facebook: / financemagnatesevents
📸 Instagram: / fmevents_official
🐦 Twitter: / f_m_events
🎥 TikTok: / fmevents_official
