With US equity markets at their highs and bond yields falling, gold is once again regaining its luster
Bloomberg
Ongoing discussions are swirling about President Trump and President Xi’s meeting at the G20 summit In Japan. This was a high-stakes meeting with concerns about a slowdown in global growth, through a protracted trade war, the forefront of investors’ minds.
It is not hard to see why this is the case since 40% of the world’s GDP comes from the combined economies of the US and China. The meeting left many questions unanswered, and ultimately a backpedaling from the implementation of tariffs.
However, given Trump’s volatile nature, nobody knows if further tariffs will be threatened, making traditional safe haven assets enticing. This article will point out some of the go to safe haven assets that should interest you should the ongoing trade war take a turn for the worst.
Going for Gold
With the Federal Reserve having recently signaled a rate cut in July there is now a growing expectation of a global low interest rate landscape that could last for some time. One of the results of this has been the growing value of Gold against the USD.
Before the last FOMC meeting Gold was kept underneath key weekly resistance on the XAU/USD chart, but with the dovish shift from the Fed Gold broke out of that level. See chart below:
The technical breakout is clean and convincing and a downturn in the latest G20 US-China trade talks will result in further Gold buying. The downside of owning Gold is that, unlike Bonds and Stocks, you do not get a return for holding the asset.
So, with US equity markets at their highs and bond yields falling across the world, Gold is once again regaining its attraction.
A US-China trade war storm will complete the fundamental picture to that technical and result in further gold strength going forward. When investors face very stormy markets, they like to go for Gold.
Bolting for Bonds
High grade bonds become a place of safety in uncertain times, since they are a better than holding cash, but they still do offer a fixed rate of return if the blind is kept for its full term.
The investing legend, Benjamin Graham, recommended having a 50-50 split between bonds and Equities and not allowing that ratio to differ by more than a 75-25 ratio split.
In other words, in uncertain times, he recommended having up to 75% of your portfolio in bonds. This would therefore make high grade government bonds, like US treasuries and UK gilts, attractive in stormy and uncertain financial.
Yearning for Yen
The Japanese Yen is a traditional safe haven currency. Negative interest rates, like the Bank of Japan currently has, would typically discourage currency capital inflows. However, the debt structuring of Japan means that the currency is considered very stable and safe for uncertain times.
As a result, when investors and speculators are fearful, there are sudden and marked inflows into the Japanese Yen. The pair that stands out for particular downside in a fresh round of the ongoing US-China trade war would be the AUD/JPY pair.
As around 30% of Australia’s economy is made up of trade with China it stands to lose out on a US-China trade war. Further trade strain would result in AUD weakness and JPY strength on safe haven flows.
Swinging to the Swiss franc
Another safe haven currency that would attract safe haven flows would be the Swiss Franc. That would see safe haven flows resulting in CHF strength.
However, it is worth bearing in mind that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has an interest in ensuring that the CHF does not become too strong.
As Switzerland has an export economy a strong CHF hurts its exporters. As a result, the SNB maintains periodic intervention in the CHF. If the CHF becomes too strong, be alert to the possibility of intervention.
In uncertain times let the US Dollar Index be your guide
The Federal Reserve is the most important central bank in the world with the US dollar being the most traded currency in the world, comprising of around 70% of all transactions on a given day.
So, having a handle on what the Dollar is doing overall on any given day is going to be a key advantage for any trader. The Dollar Index will help you do just that.
The US Dollar Index is a guide for the direction of the USD in any pair
Trading any pair with a USD half will be guided by the USD index, so here are a couple of key facts to keep in your mind:
If the USD is the base currency (USD/xxx), then the US dollar Index and the currency pair will typically move in the same direction.
If the USD is the quote currency. (xxx/USD) then the US dollar index and the currency pair will typically move in opposite directions.
The US dollar index and the smile theory
The US dollar index can give you a quick broad picture of the dollar and help you see what is going on with the market. The smile theory is worth mentioning since it is such a good way of expelling the three varying ways the dollar responds to different situations. If you look at the picture above you can see a smile.
On the left-hand side of the smile you have USD strength, which is when the global economy is struggling. This is where you have JPY, CHF strength and USD gains too as it acts as a safe haven currency.
The bottom part of the smile is where the USD depreciates on a dovish Fed. At the time of writing, in June 2019, the USD is falling with a more reserved Jerome Powell looking at a rate cut in July.
The right part of the smile is when the USD gains value on a hawkish fed and a risk on environment. This smile theory is useful as a quick rule of thumb for understanding the dollars present position and what is likely to happen next.
There is normally an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and commodity prices. By getting into the habit of noticing the USD index as soon as you start trading you can speed up your analysis on the dollar and also gain invaluable insights to inform your next trading decision.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is sponsored and does not represent the opinions of Finance Magnates.
Ongoing discussions are swirling about President Trump and President Xi’s meeting at the G20 summit In Japan. This was a high-stakes meeting with concerns about a slowdown in global growth, through a protracted trade war, the forefront of investors’ minds.
It is not hard to see why this is the case since 40% of the world’s GDP comes from the combined economies of the US and China. The meeting left many questions unanswered, and ultimately a backpedaling from the implementation of tariffs.
However, given Trump’s volatile nature, nobody knows if further tariffs will be threatened, making traditional safe haven assets enticing. This article will point out some of the go to safe haven assets that should interest you should the ongoing trade war take a turn for the worst.
Going for Gold
With the Federal Reserve having recently signaled a rate cut in July there is now a growing expectation of a global low interest rate landscape that could last for some time. One of the results of this has been the growing value of Gold against the USD.
Before the last FOMC meeting Gold was kept underneath key weekly resistance on the XAU/USD chart, but with the dovish shift from the Fed Gold broke out of that level. See chart below:
The technical breakout is clean and convincing and a downturn in the latest G20 US-China trade talks will result in further Gold buying. The downside of owning Gold is that, unlike Bonds and Stocks, you do not get a return for holding the asset.
So, with US equity markets at their highs and bond yields falling across the world, Gold is once again regaining its attraction.
A US-China trade war storm will complete the fundamental picture to that technical and result in further gold strength going forward. When investors face very stormy markets, they like to go for Gold.
Bolting for Bonds
High grade bonds become a place of safety in uncertain times, since they are a better than holding cash, but they still do offer a fixed rate of return if the blind is kept for its full term.
The investing legend, Benjamin Graham, recommended having a 50-50 split between bonds and Equities and not allowing that ratio to differ by more than a 75-25 ratio split.
In other words, in uncertain times, he recommended having up to 75% of your portfolio in bonds. This would therefore make high grade government bonds, like US treasuries and UK gilts, attractive in stormy and uncertain financial.
Yearning for Yen
The Japanese Yen is a traditional safe haven currency. Negative interest rates, like the Bank of Japan currently has, would typically discourage currency capital inflows. However, the debt structuring of Japan means that the currency is considered very stable and safe for uncertain times.
As a result, when investors and speculators are fearful, there are sudden and marked inflows into the Japanese Yen. The pair that stands out for particular downside in a fresh round of the ongoing US-China trade war would be the AUD/JPY pair.
As around 30% of Australia’s economy is made up of trade with China it stands to lose out on a US-China trade war. Further trade strain would result in AUD weakness and JPY strength on safe haven flows.
Swinging to the Swiss franc
Another safe haven currency that would attract safe haven flows would be the Swiss Franc. That would see safe haven flows resulting in CHF strength.
However, it is worth bearing in mind that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has an interest in ensuring that the CHF does not become too strong.
As Switzerland has an export economy a strong CHF hurts its exporters. As a result, the SNB maintains periodic intervention in the CHF. If the CHF becomes too strong, be alert to the possibility of intervention.
In uncertain times let the US Dollar Index be your guide
The Federal Reserve is the most important central bank in the world with the US dollar being the most traded currency in the world, comprising of around 70% of all transactions on a given day.
So, having a handle on what the Dollar is doing overall on any given day is going to be a key advantage for any trader. The Dollar Index will help you do just that.
The US Dollar Index is a guide for the direction of the USD in any pair
Trading any pair with a USD half will be guided by the USD index, so here are a couple of key facts to keep in your mind:
If the USD is the base currency (USD/xxx), then the US dollar Index and the currency pair will typically move in the same direction.
If the USD is the quote currency. (xxx/USD) then the US dollar index and the currency pair will typically move in opposite directions.
The US dollar index and the smile theory
The US dollar index can give you a quick broad picture of the dollar and help you see what is going on with the market. The smile theory is worth mentioning since it is such a good way of expelling the three varying ways the dollar responds to different situations. If you look at the picture above you can see a smile.
On the left-hand side of the smile you have USD strength, which is when the global economy is struggling. This is where you have JPY, CHF strength and USD gains too as it acts as a safe haven currency.
The bottom part of the smile is where the USD depreciates on a dovish Fed. At the time of writing, in June 2019, the USD is falling with a more reserved Jerome Powell looking at a rate cut in July.
The right part of the smile is when the USD gains value on a hawkish fed and a risk on environment. This smile theory is useful as a quick rule of thumb for understanding the dollars present position and what is likely to happen next.
There is normally an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and commodity prices. By getting into the habit of noticing the USD index as soon as you start trading you can speed up your analysis on the dollar and also gain invaluable insights to inform your next trading decision.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is sponsored and does not represent the opinions of Finance Magnates.
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Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
In this interview, we sat down with Charlotte Bullock, Head of Product at The Bank of London, previously at SAP and now shaping product at one of the sector’s most ambitious new banking players.
Charlotte reflects on the Summit so far and talks about the culture inside fintech banks today. We look at the pressures that come with scaling, and how firms can hold onto the nimble approach that made them stand out early on.
We also cover the state of payments ahead of her appearance on the payments roundtable: the blockages financial firms face, the areas that still need fixing, and what a realistic solution looks like in 2026.
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We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
In this conversation, we sit down with Drew Niv, CSO at ATFX Connect and one of the most influential figures in modern FX.
We speak about market structure, the institutional view on liquidity, and the sharp rise of prop trading, a sector Drew has been commenting on in recent months. Drew explains why he once dismissed prop trading, why his view changed, and what he now thinks the model means for brokers, clients and risk managers.
We explore subscription-fee dependency, the high reneging rate, and the long-term challenge: how brokers can build a more stable and honest version of the model. Drew also talks about the traffic advantage standalone prop firms have built and why brokers may still win in the long run if they take the right approach.
Executive Interview | Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller| CEO & Founder Muinmos | FMLS:25
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Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
In this interview, Remonda Z. Kirketerp Møller, founder of Muinmos, breaks down the state of AI in regtech and what responsible adoption really looks like for brokers. We talk about rising fragmentation, the pressures around compliance accuracy, and why most firms are still in the early stages of AI maturity.
Ramanda also shares insights on regulator sandboxes, shifting expectations around accountability, and the current reality of MiCA licensing and passporting in Europe.
A concise look at where compliance, onboarding, and AI-driven processes are heading next.
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We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
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We start with Aydin’s view of the Summit and the challenges brokers face as fraud tactics grow more complex. He explains how firms can stay ahead through real-time signals, data patterns, and early-stage detection.
We also talk about AI training and why compliance teams often struggle to keep models accurate, fair, and aligned with regulatory expectations. Aydin breaks down what “good” AI training looks like inside a financial environment, including the importance of clean data, domain expertise, and human oversight.
He closes with a clear message: fraud is scaling, and so must the tools that stop it.
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Exness expands its presence in Africa: Inside our interview with Paul Margarites in Cape Town
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
Finance Magnates met with Paul Margarites, Exness regional commercial director for Sub-Saharan Africa, during a visit to the firm’s office opening in Cape Town. In this talk, led by Andrea Badiola Mateos, Co-CEO at Finance Magnates, Paul shares views on the South African trading space, local user behavior, mobile trends, regulation, team growth, and how Exness plans to grow in more markets across the region. @Exness
Read the article at: https://www.financemagnates.com/thought-leadership/exness-expands-its-presence-in-africa-inside-our-interview-with-paul-margarites/
#exness #financemagnates #exnesstrading #CFDtrading #tradeonline #africanews #capetown
