Esperio: Oil Prices Are Rolling Down, Driven by an Entanglement of Reasons

Latest numbers show that U.S. oil storages have accumulated 3.925 million barrels more of crude oil inventories over the week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported.

It is a sharp contrast to the previous week when oil inventories dropped by 3 million barrels. Prices of the New York-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark fell by nearly 4% lower to the crucial technical support area below $85 per barrel while North Sea Brent futures sank to $91.75 per barrel.

Crude exports from the United States stabilised at levels around 3.5 million barrels per day for the second week in a row, compared to 5 million barrels per day late last month.

U.S. oil production increased to 12.1 million barrels per day, up nearly 200,000 from the previous week, while the volume of gasoline in stockpiles has lost 3.75 million barrels since mid-October, which may point to the lack of refining capacity or a recession-based slowdown.

The whole situation with European industrial costs and demand concerns related to China as the world's largest crude importer is weighing on current prices. China continues to uphold restrictions in order to avoid an outburst in corona infections in economically important regions, including its capital of Beijing.

Meanwhile, residents of the manufacturing hub of Guangzhou were ordered to get tested this week. Just a few days ago, commodity markets bet on hopes that Chinese authorities may move toward at least some relaxing to COVID-19 restrictions, but later the health ministry said it would be as faithful as ever to a "dynamic-clearing" approach to fighting infections.

Esperio analysts suggest that the combination of factors still looks bearish after an attempt of Brent futures to attack the psychological resistance level of $100 per barrel on Monday morning following the news of a looming price ceiling that will finally be established by G7 countries for the Russian oil supply.

It seems like $100 became a strong barrier against further price jumps as oil prices have impacted every economic activity which have also become even more limited by energy-fuelled inflation, so that most enterprises just do not have the ability to preserve their normal output when oil is so expensive.

This chain of events is simply hurting demand. Of course, this push oil prices lower each time there are excessive jumps. So, the recent production cuts announced by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies known as OPEC+ could be the only real reason why prices did not drop by even $10 or $15 lower.

As for current political issues, uncertainty about control of the U.S. Senate will continue at least until the second round of voting in Georgia on December 6 and this uncertainty has launched a new wave of U.S. Dollar-nominated Treasury bond buying. This stopped some capital outflow from the Greenback and sent the single currency on its next journey under the parity against the Dollar.

The whole basket of other reserve currencies is weakening. Each time this happens, commodities including oil and gasoline, become more expensive as fuel is mostly traded in U.S. Dollars. On the demand side, which is already questionable, it is weakening and pushing oil prices to roll down at an increasing speed.

Alex Boltyan, senior analyst of Esperio company