Although we cannot rule out another test of the 124-128 level later this year. In the short-term the break back down below the 120 level was fueled by the safe haven appeal of the JPY.
This article is written by Matthew Clark who is the owner of Global Forex Pros.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Matthew has been a trader for more than 20 years running FX desks at major banks and retail brokers. He recently started Global Forex Pros as a service for brokers to offer their clients, teaching them to trade in real-time as professional traders learn at banks and institutions, giving the retail trader the confidence to trade and increasing volumes for the broker.
The USD/JPY has been sold off repeatedly since the post-FOMC rally and yesterday we closed for the first time below the trendline break out that occurred on the US Non-Farm Payroll data. This morning, that slide has continued with the dollar hitting fresh one month lows against the yen. It appears to us that any attempt now to test the 124.14 highs from July 2006 and our initial target after the break up through the 120.50 has to be revised.
The last few days have seen some of the major investment banks reduce their Q1 GDP forecasts following the FOMC's dovish release last week. Barclays lowered its estimate to 1.2% from a previous forecast of 1.3% following yesterday's weak durable goods orders. Goldman Sachs downgraded its forecast again to 1.8% from 2.00%. This has been a contributing factor to not only the USD/JPY sell off, but the dollar across the board as it continues on its steepest weekly slide in over 3.5 years. This move has been exasperated and continues following the dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who shocked markets yesterday by saying that the Fed could loosen policy further if needed.
JPMorgan Chase & Co which last year said JPY would strengthen in the first half of last year has proven correct, now saying that the currency’s 2 1/2-year sell off is running out of fuel. They say that the JPY stability (we are trading as I write this around 1 % stronger than the start of the year ) highlights future appreciation following the 6 straight months of gains of Japanese exports. They say that the 30 per cent slide versus the dollar since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s rise to power in late 2012 has boosted the nation’s exports to such a degree that the currency is close to finding a floor. Looking at the price action over the last few days, we at Global Forex Pros would tend to agree at least over the short-term. Japan’s currency has advanced over 5 percent this year against its major peers, the strongest advance after the Swiss franc, Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes shown below.
“There is a high probability this year will mark the yen’s low for now,” said Tohru Sasaki, a former Bank of Japan official who is now JPMorgan’s head of Japan rates and currency research, in a recent Bloomberg interview. With Abe’s stimulus program starting to revive trade flows and the drop in oil prices cutting imports.
Although we cannot rule out another test of the 124-128 level later this year. In the short- term the break back down below the 120 level was fuelled by the safe haven appeal of the JPY. Support stands very close at 118.20 (on an Ichimoku Cloud basis) and a break below this level on a daily close basis will signal another leg lower in this USD sell off. Expect some short-term support there, but look to sell any rallies in the USD/JPY for an eventual break to occur and a test of the February lows soo at 116.80. Looking at the RSI we can see divergence with the post-FOMC sell off so some retracement is expected soon and look to sell rallies up to the 38.2% at 119.74 or even as high (although not expected) 76.4% and top of the wave iv at 121.15.
This article is written by Matthew Clark who is the owner of Global Forex Pros.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Matthew has been a trader for more than 20 years running FX desks at major banks and retail brokers. He recently started Global Forex Pros as a service for brokers to offer their clients, teaching them to trade in real-time as professional traders learn at banks and institutions, giving the retail trader the confidence to trade and increasing volumes for the broker.
The USD/JPY has been sold off repeatedly since the post-FOMC rally and yesterday we closed for the first time below the trendline break out that occurred on the US Non-Farm Payroll data. This morning, that slide has continued with the dollar hitting fresh one month lows against the yen. It appears to us that any attempt now to test the 124.14 highs from July 2006 and our initial target after the break up through the 120.50 has to be revised.
The last few days have seen some of the major investment banks reduce their Q1 GDP forecasts following the FOMC's dovish release last week. Barclays lowered its estimate to 1.2% from a previous forecast of 1.3% following yesterday's weak durable goods orders. Goldman Sachs downgraded its forecast again to 1.8% from 2.00%. This has been a contributing factor to not only the USD/JPY sell off, but the dollar across the board as it continues on its steepest weekly slide in over 3.5 years. This move has been exasperated and continues following the dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Evans who shocked markets yesterday by saying that the Fed could loosen policy further if needed.
JPMorgan Chase & Co which last year said JPY would strengthen in the first half of last year has proven correct, now saying that the currency’s 2 1/2-year sell off is running out of fuel. They say that the JPY stability (we are trading as I write this around 1 % stronger than the start of the year ) highlights future appreciation following the 6 straight months of gains of Japanese exports. They say that the 30 per cent slide versus the dollar since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s rise to power in late 2012 has boosted the nation’s exports to such a degree that the currency is close to finding a floor. Looking at the price action over the last few days, we at Global Forex Pros would tend to agree at least over the short-term. Japan’s currency has advanced over 5 percent this year against its major peers, the strongest advance after the Swiss franc, Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes shown below.
“There is a high probability this year will mark the yen’s low for now,” said Tohru Sasaki, a former Bank of Japan official who is now JPMorgan’s head of Japan rates and currency research, in a recent Bloomberg interview. With Abe’s stimulus program starting to revive trade flows and the drop in oil prices cutting imports.
Although we cannot rule out another test of the 124-128 level later this year. In the short- term the break back down below the 120 level was fuelled by the safe haven appeal of the JPY. Support stands very close at 118.20 (on an Ichimoku Cloud basis) and a break below this level on a daily close basis will signal another leg lower in this USD sell off. Expect some short-term support there, but look to sell any rallies in the USD/JPY for an eventual break to occur and a test of the February lows soo at 116.80. Looking at the RSI we can see divergence with the post-FOMC sell off so some retracement is expected soon and look to sell rallies up to the 38.2% at 119.74 or even as high (although not expected) 76.4% and top of the wave iv at 121.15.
Retail Broker Acetop UK Quadruples 2023 Revenue, Significantly Narrows Losses
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/financemagnates-events/
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
📣 Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
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Follow Finance Magnates for news, insights, and event updates across our social media platforms. Connect with us today:
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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