Following the ECB’s unchanged rate decision, and the NFP announcement today, let's see what Matthew Clark predicts for the EUR/USD wavy situation.
Yesterday morning the market waited in anticipation of Super Mario Draghi's press conference. Following the ECB’s unchanged rate decision the market awaited details on the previously announced Quantitative Easing with the bond purchasing program starting on Monday the 9th of March, as previously leaked last week from an ECB source.
But once again, despite saying that the European Central Bank forecasts assume the EUR/USD Exchange rate at 1.14 in 2015, 1.13 in 2016, and 1.13 in 2017, very little new information was offered. He was quite optimistic on the economic outlook for the euro area with higher revisions for growth over the next 2 years, with increases to 1.5% from 1% this year and 1.9% from 1.5% in 2016.
The EUR/USD jumped to a day’s high at 1.1114 before surrendering its gains falling to fresh 11-years lows after he announced that the European Central Bank was willing to buy negative yielding bonds and that bond yields could fall down to the -0.2% ECB deposit rate.
But with the market today waiting on the Non-Farm payrolls what can we expect for the EUR/USD?
On a fundamental basis the market is looking for 235,000 new jobs to be added in February and a fall in the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.6%. Private sector wage growth will also be under scrutiny which was weaker than expected towards the end of last year, any rise should give the dollar a boost. But expectations are for a fall to 0.2 from 0.5 month-on-month, so look out for revisions lower from the previous month as it would see the dollar sell off.
Looking at the chart above, we can see on a technical basis that we broke the wave (4) triangle that developed from the 23rd of January to the 26th of February. This has set us up for the final push lower in a wave (5).
On the short-term chart we have broken down the wave count and should now look for 5 waves lower from yesterday's Super Mario inspired spike. Obviously before Non-Farm payrolls, even if we see a lower EUR/USD we cannot guarantee that the wave 5 will be the end with the possibility of it being a wave 1 of wave 5, but any print above the 1.1220 level will confirm that a low in the euro is in place and the multi-week, multi-month correction is finally underway.
Yesterday morning the market waited in anticipation of Super Mario Draghi's press conference. Following the ECB’s unchanged rate decision the market awaited details on the previously announced Quantitative Easing with the bond purchasing program starting on Monday the 9th of March, as previously leaked last week from an ECB source.
But once again, despite saying that the European Central Bank forecasts assume the EUR/USD Exchange rate at 1.14 in 2015, 1.13 in 2016, and 1.13 in 2017, very little new information was offered. He was quite optimistic on the economic outlook for the euro area with higher revisions for growth over the next 2 years, with increases to 1.5% from 1% this year and 1.9% from 1.5% in 2016.
The EUR/USD jumped to a day’s high at 1.1114 before surrendering its gains falling to fresh 11-years lows after he announced that the European Central Bank was willing to buy negative yielding bonds and that bond yields could fall down to the -0.2% ECB deposit rate.
But with the market today waiting on the Non-Farm payrolls what can we expect for the EUR/USD?
On a fundamental basis the market is looking for 235,000 new jobs to be added in February and a fall in the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.6%. Private sector wage growth will also be under scrutiny which was weaker than expected towards the end of last year, any rise should give the dollar a boost. But expectations are for a fall to 0.2 from 0.5 month-on-month, so look out for revisions lower from the previous month as it would see the dollar sell off.
Looking at the chart above, we can see on a technical basis that we broke the wave (4) triangle that developed from the 23rd of January to the 26th of February. This has set us up for the final push lower in a wave (5).
On the short-term chart we have broken down the wave count and should now look for 5 waves lower from yesterday's Super Mario inspired spike. Obviously before Non-Farm payrolls, even if we see a lower EUR/USD we cannot guarantee that the wave 5 will be the end with the possibility of it being a wave 1 of wave 5, but any print above the 1.1220 level will confirm that a low in the euro is in place and the multi-week, multi-month correction is finally underway.
This article is written by Matthew Clark who is the owner of
Global Forex Pros.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Matthew has been a trader for more than 20 years running FX desks at major banks and retail brokers. He recently started Global Forex Pros as a service for brokers to offer their clients, teaching them to trade in real time as professional traders learn at banks and institutions, giving the retail trader the confidence to trade and increasing volumes for the broker. Matthew has been a trader for more than 20 years running FX desks at major banks and retail brokers. He recently started Global Forex Pros as a service for brokers to offer their clients, teaching them to trade in real-time as professional traders learn at banks and institutions, giving the retail trader the confidence to trade and increasing volumes for the broker.
Devexperts Checks Off Type 2 SOC 2 Audit for Enhanced Data Security
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africa’s premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now 🔗 https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
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20-22 MAY 2024
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#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
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Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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