Author: Bogdan I. Ghica, participant of the Analyst Contest
Since Mid of February the Japanese Yen has been working hard to break the US Dollar, but it is losing strength on an hourly basis, lingering between a resistance at around 114.50 and a support which has not been reached in a while at 111.50.
4 Hour Chart
On the 4HR Chart, even though there is a Bullish sentiment, it may not have the strength to change the trend from Daily, for the simple fact that there is still a long way to go until the Bulls regain control. With this in mind, once the support at 113.40 is broken the down trend will continue with less to no effort.
Having another support level at 112.25 may be encouraging for some Bullish traders but if this price target will be reached in the near future, the Japanese Yen will yet again control the chart. Even if the fundamentals will help in the short term, the overall trend remains focused on the "SHORT" side.
Considering the higher highs and lower lows, one may think that everything is going as planned, but it is not really typical for the Japanese Yen to linger around an area for too much time, and the general pressure on the price is indeed to "hammer" it.
With the final support level at 111.50, tested but not broken on the 24th of February, right now everything points out that the US Dollar may become a problem for the Japanese Yen in the short term.
Where to now?
The only timid "BUY" encouragement comes from the 4HR chart. On Daily and Weekly Charts we see a clearly Bearish trend and if things do not change in a couple of weeks, with the momentum at its side, the Japanese Yen may become even stronger just out of inertia.
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A couple of years ago many traders thought that price will not get any higher, and the US Dollar is just fooling around. Well, Mister "Time" sure has repeated "himself" but not in the exact same way.
The Foreign Exchange Market has a repetitive structure that must be considered every time historical levels tend to be reached. Without it, there will be no "FX Market". Considering the before mentioned detail, the USDJPY currency pair is indeed closing the gap towards such historic levels.
Those two 45 degree trend lines, found on the Weekly Gopher Chart will surely have the strength to keep the price in the aforementioned down trend. There will surely be a number of spikes at some point in the near future, but overall, unless things will change very soon, very fast, there is no end in sight to this Bearish trend.
Can it be a false breakout?
Considering the fact that the Japanese Yen tried to turn Bullish in mid-2014 with absolutely no success, generally speaking, the second time things got serious. Based on the present international aspects, and the way the US Dollar is losing strength on one currency pair after the other, a false breakout cannot be taken into consideration.
The worst thing that may happen is to see a price consolidation around a certain support level, which is not visible right now on the Weekly Chart, but we will definitely see by the end of March.
With all this being said, the Japanese Yen is surely becoming stronger on a Daily basis, and this may go on for the rest of the first half of 2016!