Along with the rest of the grain complex and many other commodities, the wheat market has taken a serious beating.
Along with the rest of the grain complex and many other commodities, the wheat market has taken a serious beating, declining from $7.64 in May to $4.66 in late September! That is a very serious drop in price (close to 40%!!) in a short period of time.
In recent weeks, the wheat market has bounced almost $0.60 from its lows and the big question longer term traders, as well as swing traders, are asking themselves, is the following: Is this just a chance to go short again or is this the beginning of a reversal to the upside.
My answer is still undecided. I believe that the recent sell off across the commodities, and the grain complex specifically, was a little overdone and hence we should see a correction. On the flip side, the majority of strong trends do NOT just simply stop and reverse right away. Many times the markets will find value in the new trading range and will trade between what traders perceive is fair value levels. It can take a while for this type of new trading range to establish itself and to determine if a new leg down or a strong leg up develops.
In the case of Wheat and the daily chart below, I am looking at the $5.00 psychological level and $5.36 Fibonacci 61.8% level as a wide band where I expect the market to trade and find fair value for a period of time.
Not much on the fundamental side other than plantings and export sales, so market may be more of a technical market for next few weeks.
At this point I would be more inclined to attack the market from the long side if I can get in closer to the $5.09 level , looking for a test of $5.36 and using levels right below $5 as stop levels.
Another thought is to "play the wheat market" in a spread against another grain market with the thought that wheat will become stronger or weaker versus beans or corn for example. So if you think this rally in wheat is just a bounce, you may choose to go short wheat and long corn and vise versa. More on futures spreads in this excellent article.
Daily chart of Dec. Wheat for your review below:
Many ways to trade any market, many ways to lose money in any market and only very few ways to lock in gains - this one is not different. If you need help creating a trading plan, visit our broker assist services.
Disclaimer - Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-Exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
About Ilan Levy-Mayer
Ilan Levy-Mayer has been a commodities broker for over 15 years, and holds an MBA in Finance and Marketing from Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Ilan is currently the Vice President and a Senior Broker at Cannon Trading Company.
Take a step in the right direction and contact me today, Toll-Free: 800-454-9572 or direct: +310-859-9572. You may also directly e-mail me, Send mail.
Along with the rest of the grain complex and many other commodities, the wheat market has taken a serious beating, declining from $7.64 in May to $4.66 in late September! That is a very serious drop in price (close to 40%!!) in a short period of time.
In recent weeks, the wheat market has bounced almost $0.60 from its lows and the big question longer term traders, as well as swing traders, are asking themselves, is the following: Is this just a chance to go short again or is this the beginning of a reversal to the upside.
My answer is still undecided. I believe that the recent sell off across the commodities, and the grain complex specifically, was a little overdone and hence we should see a correction. On the flip side, the majority of strong trends do NOT just simply stop and reverse right away. Many times the markets will find value in the new trading range and will trade between what traders perceive is fair value levels. It can take a while for this type of new trading range to establish itself and to determine if a new leg down or a strong leg up develops.
In the case of Wheat and the daily chart below, I am looking at the $5.00 psychological level and $5.36 Fibonacci 61.8% level as a wide band where I expect the market to trade and find fair value for a period of time.
Not much on the fundamental side other than plantings and export sales, so market may be more of a technical market for next few weeks.
At this point I would be more inclined to attack the market from the long side if I can get in closer to the $5.09 level , looking for a test of $5.36 and using levels right below $5 as stop levels.
Another thought is to "play the wheat market" in a spread against another grain market with the thought that wheat will become stronger or weaker versus beans or corn for example. So if you think this rally in wheat is just a bounce, you may choose to go short wheat and long corn and vise versa. More on futures spreads in this excellent article.
Daily chart of Dec. Wheat for your review below:
Many ways to trade any market, many ways to lose money in any market and only very few ways to lock in gains - this one is not different. If you need help creating a trading plan, visit our broker assist services.
Disclaimer - Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-Exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
About Ilan Levy-Mayer
Ilan Levy-Mayer has been a commodities broker for over 15 years, and holds an MBA in Finance and Marketing from Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Ilan is currently the Vice President and a Senior Broker at Cannon Trading Company.
Take a step in the right direction and contact me today, Toll-Free: 800-454-9572 or direct: +310-859-9572. You may also directly e-mail me, Send mail.
Ilan Levy-Mayer has been a commodities broker for over 15 years, and holds an MBA in Finance and Marketing from Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Ilan is currently the Vice President and a Senior Broker at Cannon Trading Company . He is also a CTA of Levex Capital Management and his daily blog was voted the #1 Futures Blog from Trader's Planet.His experience in the industry dates from the beginning of online trading, and he has also developed several trading systems over the years. In addition, Ilan has written several articles about trading methods and trading psychology, and has been quoted and published several times in SFO magazine, Futures, and Bloomberg. Ilan Levy-Mayer has been a commodities broker for over 15 years, and holds an MBA in Finance and Marketing from Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Ilan is currently the Vice President and a Senior Broker at Cannon Trading Company . He is also a CTA of Levex Capital Management and his daily blog was voted the #1 Futures Blog from Trader's Planet.His experience in the industry dates from the beginning of online trading, and he has also developed several trading systems over the years. In addition, Ilan has written several articles about trading methods and trading psychology, and has been quoted and published several times in SFO magazine, Futures, and Bloomberg.
Noel Quinn's Surprise Exit Marks End of an Era at HSBC
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Network, Learn, Grow | FMAS:24
Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now π https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
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Get ready to mark your calendars for FMAS:24, returning this May! Take a quick glimpse of what awaits at the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa from May 20-22, 2024.
Don't miss out on this 5-second invite packed with energy and urgency!
Secure your free ticket now π https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
π£ Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africaβs premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now π https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
π£ Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
Follow FMevents across our social media platforms for news, insights, and event updates. Connect with us today:
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Don't miss out on our latest videos, interviews, and event coverage. Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more!
Here's a sneak peek into the FMAS:24 vibrant atmosphere! Join us at Africaβs premium financial event for a transformative experience that combines the best of finance and technology.
From May 20-22, 2024, the Sandton Convention Centre in Sandton, South Africa, will be the hub for over 3,500 attendees to engage in unparalleled networking opportunities, learn from over 150 industry-leading speakers, and explore innovations from 120+ exhibitors.
Secure your free ticket now π https://events.financemagnates.com/yQx0l?utm_source=youtube&utm_campaign=fmas-is-back&utm_medium=video&RefId=FMAS24+Video+Ad+%5B1%5D
#fmas24 #fmas #fmevents #financeinafrica #traders #investors #affiliates #forexTraders #investmentOpportunities #B2BNetworking #finTech #Innovations #TradingCommunity #BusinessOpportunities #AfricanBusiness #Johannesburg #southafrica
π£ Stay updated with the latest in finance and trading!
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 | Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
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Looking to expand your network in #Africa? Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
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Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Join 3500+ Attendees at FMAS:24 - Africa's Premium Financial Event
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Looking to expand your network in #Africa?
Join 3500+ attendees at FMAS:24, where online trading, fintech, payments, and crypto meet! Connect with industry leaders and innovators for an unmatched networking experience.
20-22 MAY 2024
Sandton Convention Center, Sandton, South Africa
Register now to secure your spot: https://bit.ly/3JbUpCK
#fmas #fmas24 #fmevents #networking #finance #africa
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Where the Prop Trading Industry Goes from Here | Finance Magnates Podcast
Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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Explore the tumultuous world of prop trading in this Finance Magnates podcast episode, featuring insights from Head of Axi Select, Greg Rubin.
We're discussing the challenges and shifts caused by MetaQuotes' pivotal decisions affecting MT4 and MT5 users, and how Axi Select offers a unique, realistic path to professional trading, steering clear of traditional prop firm pitfalls.
Tune in for expert analysis on the future of trading and innovative funding models.
The Axi Select programme is only available to clients of AxiTrader Limited. CFDs carry a high risk of investment loss. In our dealings with you, we will act as a principal counterparty to all of your positions. This content is not available for AU, NZ, EU and UK residents. For more information, refer to our Terms of Service. Standard trading fees apply.
This content is provided solely for general informational purposes and should not be construed as financial product advice or an investment recommendation. It has been prepared without considering your personal circumstances.
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