Market analysis on EUR/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CHF: 31st October – 4th November

Analysis of major USD pairs.

EUR/USD: 31st October – 4th November

The EUR/USD pair has broken the triangle support line and is currently trying to retrace back to the broken support line which turned into a strong resistance level. The near term resistance is at the 1.10420 level.

Professional traders are waiting patiently for the price to retrace back to the critical resistance level in order to enter short. But last Friday the pair corrected with a strong bullish candle which created fear amongst sellers about the validity of the critical resistance level at 1.10420. Traders are advised to enter short at that level with a bearish price action confirmation signal. However, if the pair manages to breach the resistance level at 1.10420 then we will see a retest of the triangle top trending trend line resistance at 1.12007 level.

A clear break of that critical resistance level will bring the buyers into the market again which will lead this pair towards the key resistance level at the 1.16120 level.

If the critical resistance level manages to restrict the bullish move of the pair then we will see a decent bearish move in the EUR/USD pair in the upcoming week. The first bearish target for the pair is the minor support level at 1.08492.

A clear decisive break of that level will confirm the end of the minor bullish correction of this pair and will create fresh selling pressure in the market. A clear break of that critical support level will confirm the break of the triangle pattern and we will see an imminent price drop towards the next critical support level at the 1.06990 level.

From that level, we might see a bullish bounce but ultimately the sellers are most likely to take the control again. Considering all the technical and fundamental parameters, the overall bias for the EUR/USD pair is strongly bearish and the pair is most likely to test the key support level at 1.05019.

NZD/USD Forecast: 31st October – 4th November

The medium-term uptrend in the NZD/USD pair is still intact and currently the price is trading well above the 38.0% Fibonacci retracement level.

Near term support for the pair is at the critical support level at 0.70529 where the 38.0% Fibonacci retracement support lines. Going up the pair has very little room to move since a huge cluster of resistance is near the 0.72306 level. The pair is most likely to turn bearish after hitting that level in the event of a minor bullish correction. However, if the pair manages to break the critical resistance at the  0.72306 level then we are going to see a nice bullish rally in the NZD/USD pair towards the next critical resistance level at 0.74807 level.

This level is going to play a significant role in the next move of this pair since a clear break of that level will turn market sentiment strongly bullish.

The pair is most likely to fall towards the critical support level at 0.70529 after hitting the critical resistance level at the 0.72306 level. If the pair manages to breach the 38.0% Fibonacci retracement level then we will see a decent drop in the price towards the next Fibonacci retracement level.

The pair might exhibit ranging movement after hitting the next support level at 0.69164 where the 50% Fibonacci retracement level lies.

A clear decisive break of that level will lead the pair towards the key support level at 0.67821. From that level, the pair might start its bullish rally again.

But if the critical support level of 0.67821 fails to limit the sellers in the market then we will see a strong bearish move in the market. Since price is trading close to the critical resistance level buying this pair would be an immature act. We will try to short this pair near the 0.72306 level with bearish price action confirmation signal. The first bearish target would be our 38.0% retracement level.

USD/CHF Forecast: 31st October – 4th November 

The USD/CHF pair has rejected a critical resistance level at 0.99483 and the pair is most likely to form a triple top pattern in the daily chart.

After the formation of the bearish pin bar the market fell sharply last Friday which clearly indicates fresh selling pressure in the USD/CHF pair. The pair is most likely to retrace back to the critical resistance level at 0.99483 level before it starts to fall sharply.

However, if the pair manages to breach the critical resistance level then we will see a strong bullish rally in the USD/CHF pair towards the next key resistance level at 1.0000. A valid break of that level will bring the next critical resistance level into action which is at 1.02340. If the pair manages to breach that level then we will confirm that a new bullish trend in the market has strongly established in the longer time frame.

In the upcoming week, the pair is most likely to retrace a bit towards the 0.99483 level.

We will enter short in the USD/CHF pair by setting a tight stop loss near at the 1.0015 level. The first bearish target for the pair would be a broken trend line resistance level which turns into support.

If the pair manages to breach the trend line support level at the 0.9780 level we will see a strong bearish rally in the USD/CHF pair towards the next critical support level at 0.96440. A clear decisive break of that level will bring the pair towards the key support level at 0.94400.

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